QUESTION: So, if the Democrats take the House and possibly the Senate, and if I remember correctly, Biden didn’t sign that act saying the president cannot withdraw from NATO? Does that mean the Democrats can force us into World War III to protect Zelensky?

HJ

ANSWER: Yes and No. In 2024, Biden signed Section 1250A  into law, which prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO. The 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) included it, and it is codified at 22 U.S.C. § 1928f.

The law explicitly prohibits the President from suspending, terminating, denouncing, or withdrawing from the North Atlantic Treaty except by one of two methods:

Advice and consent of the Senate, with two-thirds of Senators present concurring, or
An Act of Congress.

It also bars the use of any federal funds to support a NATO withdrawal without meeting those requirements. This was supported by the Neocon then Sen. Marco Rubio (now Secretary of State) and Sen. Tim Kaine.

The law sets up a potential legal clash. The executive branch’s Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) issued a 2020 opinion arguing that treaty withdrawal is an exclusive presidential power that Congress cannot constitutionally constrain. If a President attempted to withdraw without congressional approval, the matter would end up in court unless you had a Democrat as president.

However, the practical effect is that any President would need at least 14 Democratic Senators (assuming all Republicans voted to withdraw) to reach the two-thirds threshold required by the law. Section 1928f is titled “Limitation on withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.” Its sole purpose is to prevent the President from unilaterally withdrawing the United States from NATO without congressional approval.

While I believe it is unconstitutional, the real tension would be the Democrats would shut down all funds until he sent Americans to due for the ethnic cleansing of Zelensky. Anyway you slice this, we are in for a chaotic 2 years into 2028 and the American people, and the world, will wonder if the United States is even salvageable.

JEB: “I don’t know of any other president in my lifetime that had so much momentum behind them that they could’ve really made serious change. But I also never saw a president sell America out to Israel so blatantly.”

BD: “Trump built a durable coalition that would have ruled for 25 years. No other Republican could have done it. Then we did a regime change war in the Middle East”

GLEN: “I’m telling you, the turnout models being used by GOP pollsters are wrong.  A bunch of Republicans that nobody thought would lose are going to find themselves very negatively surprised in a few weeks. It may be a “historic precedent that is rarely defied” but I can tell you what is unprecedented ,… it’s the seething anger we Republican voters have for Trump and the feckless, self-serving worms in Congress. We know how disastrous it will be if the lunatic left gain back control, but our anger is so great that many of us have a burn it all down mentality. The rot in our government is so gargantuan that is has become unsustainable. Everyone is bought off and utterly corrupt…. The left, the right, the degenerate Corp media, all of our institutions. Those of us who don’t have our heads up our asses know that we are in very perilous times.”

We have a Panic Cycle in 2027 in the Senate for the Democrats. I suspect we will have a surprising midterm. Netanyahu has so screwed the United States all for his personal vendetta with Iran. I suspect the progressives will go crazy and the people have to learn the hard way, for history suggests that is the only way human ever learns. Anyone who thinks voting in the Democrats will change anything for the better know nothing. The Democrats will so screw up the economy with their hatred of the rich that the migration from Blue States to the Red will accelerate.

People like Elizabeth Warren, a diehard communist for the rest of society her excluded will seriously destroy CONFIDENCE in the economy and investment fulfilling our model into a steep recession into 2028. Mandami will succeed in reducing NYC into a wasteland just as the city of Detroit cause every auto manufacturer to flee. Without CONFIDENCE in the future, capital will contract and NOT invest. No matter what you say, they refuse to listen. They are no different than a guy with a gun robbing passers by because they have more than them.

What they preach is forbidden in the Ten Commandments showing that this is the evil dark side of humanity that always destroys civilization. It has been taking place for thousands of years. This is what is REQUIRED to get to 2032 that will finally convince the average American that the system is broke and neither side is even capable of fixing anything because they are too busy playing the game.

The Great Migration Blue to Red

I have personally met many families who fled to Florida because their children were getting suicidal under the lockdowns and school closing during COVID. The data points to a few key drivers, though the reasons are complex and personal:

Cost of Living and Affordability: This is often cited as a primary factor. High housing costs in states like California and New York are pushing residents to seek more affordable areas .

Family and Quality of Life: Wanting to be closer to family has been the top reason for interstate moves for several years. Other common motivations include retirement and a desire for a different pace of life .

Taxes and Policy: Some analyses, particularly from conservative-leaning think tanks, argue that lower taxes and less regulation in red states are significant draws . However, this remains a subject of debate; for instance, one analysis found that most people leaving Massachusetts earned under $200,000, suggesting affordability concerns outweighed tax policy for many

COVID lockdowns

There is no doubt that the a major Democratic victory will spark the Separatist Movement for people are starting to see that this two party system is hopelessly corrupt and incompetent of running the country. We will see the US break apart precisely as the Roman Empire split into three for the very same reasons –

IT’S ECONOMY STUPID!!!!

COMMENT: Marty, Socrates is simply unbelievable. When everyone assumed a deal would be reached and Trump was trying to strong-arm Zelensky, Socrates still predicted rising diesel prices. Today, after saying Kyiv would no longer comply with US President Donald Trump’s demand that it not strike Russian oil refineries, Zelensky turned to his European lapdogs. Socrates sees through everything. I don’t know how you ever managed this.

Z

REPLY: I have said, even I cannot beat Socrates. It is an objective observer of the world. It is not partisan, and it is not opinion. We all have an opinion. That doesn’t lead to accurate forecasts. There is still the risk of this week forming a temp high with a 2 to 3 week retest of support. The major risks will be in the 1st quarter next year. The Democrats want to have Zelensky trillions as Elizabeth Waren shakes everyone upside down to get every last dime.

Based on polling data, the vast majority of Democrats support continued or increased military aid to Ukraine, but there is no polling data showing that a majority of Democrats specifically want to fund strikes on all Russian refineries with no regard to what they will do to creating a famine. They insisted on lockdowns for COVID with also no regard for its economic impact.

Democrats are overwhelmingly in favor of supporting Ukraine militarily. 53% of Democrats want to increase military aid to Ukraine, while 19% want to maintain current levels. Only 9% want to decrease or stop aid. There is a Congressional Ukraine Caucus, which includes Democrats, that has pushed back against any restrictions that would limit Ukraine’s ability to to wage World War II in its quest to destroy Russia. They are yelling on Capitol Hill screaming that any restrictions is putting civilians at risk are “unacceptable.” Of course, the do not care about how many Ukrainian ethnic Russian they kill in revenge.

If Democrats retake the House in November, impeachment is “essentially guaranteed” according to Republican leaders like Speaker Mike Johnson and Rep. Jim Jordan. We have a Panic Cycle in the Senate for 2027 and that does NOT look good. Democrats need only a simple majority to pass articles of impeachment, and many in the progressive wing, such as Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ro Khanna, are already vocal supporters .

As you can see, we also have a Panic Cycle in 2027 for the Democrats in the House AND Senate. This is not good. This will be waging war against anything Trump does and they will seriously disrupt the country, the government, and geopolitics. Trump’s refusal to throw Netanyahu under the bus will seriously undermine his legacy no matter what he names after himself.

The peak for the Republicans was 2025. That was the turning point and a Directional Change. Welcome to 2032.

You may need to buy a bigger bed to hide under especially going into 2028/2029.

Forget politics: The AI power story is stronger than ever. Plus, breaking down the market volatility… What the PMI means for inflation… A diesel export ban? … BofA's year-end targets… And McDonald's (MCD) bleak Investor Day.

The post Political headwinds can’t derail the AI trade appeared first on Curzio Research.

The Treasury's latest move temporarily boosted stocks, but exposes a deeper issue. Plus, the reality of confusing market signals… Anthropic vs OpenAI… Crypto's recent jump… Danger for this Mag 7 stock… And what 13Fs are telling us.

The post The Treasury’s latest move is a warning sign appeared first on Curzio Research.