Several days ago, just as America’s national debt topped $40 trillion for the first time, China’s official propaganda outlets took the opportunity to mock the United States over this ominous milestone.

Xinhua is the Chinese government’s official news agency, and they published a scathing commentary comparing the US national debt to Frankenstein and his monster. They noted both were “destroyed by the forces they had set in motion,” and that America “risks a similar end.”

Another Xinhua social media account mocked the US government for borrowing new debt to pay back old debt, joking, “sounds like a perfect plan.”

And a different Xinhua piece warned that US Treasuries were transforming from a rock-solid “risk-free” safe haven asset into a source of volatility.

Xinhua’s comments are not wrong. $40 trillion an insane amount of debt, and if you include state and local debt across the United States— New York, California, Chicago, etc., the total gross debt grows to $44 trillion.

The worst part is that few politicians are serious about cutting the debt, or even slowing down the borrowing. Congress can’t even cut hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of obvious fraud.

But the criticism is pretty rich coming from the Chinese Communist Party.

America’s federal debt is roughly 125% of GDP. Even including state and local debt it’s 135% of GDP.

But China’s is 107% of GDP— so it’s not like the CCP is some paragon of spending restraint! And that 107% number is just what they publicly acknowledge.

Here’s one example of an accounting trick China uses to keep its full debt off the books.

For decades, Chinese cities weren’t allowed to borrow directly. So as an alternative they set up government-owned companies to do the borrowing for them.

These government-owned companies built the subways, the industrial parks, and the apartment towers, but the debt sat on the companies’ books instead of the government’s.

In November 2024 China’s government finally admitted to trillions of dollars worth of this hidden debt. And they announced a five-year plan to move it onto their official balance sheet.

America’s debt has been growing steadily: a horribly grotesque, absurdly wasteful $2 trillion per year since 2020. But China’s debt takes a quantum leap every time the CCP tells a little more truth.

And by the IMF’s count, China’s real government debt comes to 135% of GDP this year… dead even with America’s.

But Chinese debt pulls way ahead of the US when you factor in actual private debt held by companies and citizens.

Chinese corporate debt, for example, sits at 143% of GDP. US company debt is about HALF of that level. And let’s not forget that the biggest Chinese borrowers are state-owned enterprises where the politicians are ultimately in charge. So I’m suuuuure those company audits are totally above board…

The real question is HOW is this money going to be paid back. And by WHOM?

In January, China’s statistics bureau reported that just 7.9 million babies were born in 2025, down from 9.5 million the year before… and the fewest in modern China’s history. China’s fertility rate is 0.96, not even half of what it takes to keep a population steady. And China’s population shrank for the fourth year in a row.

America’s debt will land on the next generation, which is bad. But at least America HAS a next generation.

Decades of the idiotic one-child policy left China with families with (hopefully) one worker supporting two parents and four grandparents. That same worker will now inherit his share of China’s debt at 135%+ of GDP.

America’s fiscal challenges are immense. But they can be solved with common sense solutions— eliminating obvious fraud, making government more efficient, scaling back regulations that hamstring small business growth, reforming the immigration system, reforming Social Security.

China, on the other hand, needs a time machine to solve its problems. And since no such time machine exists, they just cook the books.

Seriously. A shrinking population is deadly for a nation’s economy. China can’t go back in time to reverse its one-child policy. And they can’t fix it with immigration either— because few people want to move to China!

This is why so many Chinese companies are developing robotics— it’s an absolute necessity there. But even this comes with a major social cost, i.e. higher unemployment.

And China cooks the books on those numbers as well.

When youth unemployment hit 21.3% in June 2023, the bureau suddenly decided that its methods of calculating unemployment needed immediate changes.

Plus any criticism or complaining leads to imprisonment… or worse.

In October 2020, Jack Ma, Alibaba’s founder and then the richest man in China, gave a speech in Shanghai saying China’s banks ran on a “pawnshop mentality” and its regulators were out of date.

Two weeks later the Chinese government killed his payments company’s stock listing, which would have been the biggest in history, and Ma disappeared for three months.

This method of control is why no one can really trust anything from the Chinese government.

That includes their attitude that they will some day rule the world.

When President Trump visited Beijing earlier this year, Xi Jinping asked whether China and the United States could “overcome the so-called Thucydides Trap,” the theory that a rising power and the one it threatens end up at war.

China’s government has spent years telling anyone who’ll listen that America is finished and China’s time has come.

America does have challenges. And there is still some time left to get its house in order to avoid serious consequences.

But China is not its replacement.

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King Hammurabi of Babylon had a simple rule for home builders: if the house you built collapsed and killed its owner, you were put to death.

That was law #229, carved in stone almost 4,000 years ago. And some version of this rule has existed for most of human history. Even to this day, it’s a tradition among architects to spend the night under a bridge they designed to prove that it’s safe.

Bottom line, people who built things were often expected to eat their own cooking and suffer the successes and consequences of their work.

The United States Congress has spent decades perfecting the opposite arrangement.

Start with the salary. Members of Congress earn $174,000 a year, more than double what the median American household makes. Yet Congress would like you to know how painful that is.

Senator Tommy Tuberville calls the job a “sacrifice.” Representative Pramila Jayapal complains that “most of us get paid less than our chiefs [of staff] at this point.”

Current and former members are suing the government, demanding retroactive cost-of-living raises, with claims as high as $420,000 apiece.

Bear in mind, again, that Congressmen already make $174,000 per year. Yet the House of Representatives averages just 150 days in session per year. And last year’s legislative calendar scheduled just 137 days.

Most Americans work at least 250 days a year. So, adjusting for actual days worked, Congressmen are actually earning nearly $300,000 based on a normal work year. So the pay gap between everyday Americans and their Congressional representatives is even greater than at first glance.

And just how do they fill their 150ish work days? The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee once handed its incoming freshmen a model schedule:

Four hours of the day went to fundraising calls. Another hour to something called “strategic outreach”, i.e. being aligned with the party bosses. The actual job of representing constituents gets, maybe, 3-4 hours per day.

By the party’s own math, half of a congressman’s day goes to keeping the job rather than doing it.

This is insane. A welder doesn’t get to spend half of his day persuading people to let him keep his job; rather, if he doesn’t want to get fired, he simply has to do a good job. Pretty simple.

But members of Congress can’t run on their records, because their record is the insane world that we all live in.

So they spend their days telling lies to donors in order to raise enough money to tell more lies in TV commercials and email blasts. Anywhere else, this cascade of lies would be considered criminal fraud. In politics it’s just campaigning.

And in a few weeks, those campaign pitches will even receive a special pass around Gmail’s inbox filter: starting September 8, 2026, Google will let verified political committees bypass it entirely, just in time for the midterms. Your inbox has rules; their fundraising has an exemption.

But the exemptions don’t stop there.

Thanks to Congress, Americans are required by law to have some overpriced health insurance plan. But politicians have a special plan, with taxpayers footing the vast majority of the premium… plus coverage for life once a member qualifies for retirement after serving just FIVE years in Congress.

So the same people who built the most unaffordable healthcare system in the world exempted themselves from ever feeling the pain.

Pensions repeat the pattern: members elected before 2013 earn a pension that accrues nearly twice as fast as a regular federal worker’s, collectible as early as 50. They let Social Security drift toward insolvency for you. For themselves, they built a backup.

Then there’s the stock trading. A corporate executive who trades on confidential information goes to prison. Congress never bothered to apply those rules to itself until the 2012 STOCK Act.

That might explain how former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi went from a roughly $3 million net worth when she entered Congress in 1987 to an estimated $280 million today. It’s all apparently due to her husband’s extreme investment prowess.

But she’s far from the only one. Must all be a wild coincidence.

Even after the 2012 STOCK Act which required politicians to disclose their stock trades, nothing changed. Seventy-eight members broke that law in a single term— yet in the fourteen years since the STOCK Act, not a single one has been prosecuted for insider trading.

Even Speaker Mike Johnson says, “Look, at least let them, like, engage in some stock trading, so that they can continue to, you know, take care of their family.”

Imagine the private-sector version: if JP Morgan announced a new campus in Texas and its CEO, Jamie Dimon, bought up the surrounding land to sell to his own company, he’d be indicted before the concrete cured.

Congress runs that trade every day, on information you’ll never see, and calls it “taking care of their family”.

Then you’ve got their housing perks.

Representatives can bill taxpayers for their living costs in Washington DC— up to $276 a night for lodging, plus a $92 meal allowance.

What’s interesting is that this is a recent adjustment going back to just 2023. Congressmen were ‘suffering’ the worst inflation in four decades. Rather than acknowledge that they themselves were instrumental in creating that inflation, they cooked up a bailout for themselves so that they wouldn’t have to pay sky-high prices.

In short, you pay higher living costs. Congressmen bill you for theirs.

Congressmen also routinely get sweetheart deals from banks and mortgage brokers; during the 2008 financial crisis, for example, America’s largest housing lender at the time ran a VIP program that waived fees and cut prices on home loans for politicians and key staffers.

Everyone else pays the going rate— 6% to 7% today. Politicians get special terms, and I’m sure there are no strings attached.

An organization that never feels its own failures has no reason to fix them. The debt, the inflation, and the fraud keep compounding no matter who wins.

Hammurabi figured out the fix 4,000 years ago: make the builder liable for his own construction. Congress has spent decades making sure the roof always comes down on somebody else.

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On June 7, 1939, US President Franklin Roosevelt signed a new law authorizing $100 million (a lot of money back then) to buy rubber, tin, tungsten, etc., and put it all in storage.

The United States was still at peace at the time. World War II had not yet broken out, and global trade was still relatively seamless.

But anyone reading a newspaper could see what was coming. Hitler had annexed Austria the year before and swallowed the rest of Czechoslovakia that March. Japan had been at war in China for two years.

Every commodity on Roosevelt’s list had one thing in common: America produced next to none of it. Nearly all of the rubber used by US companies, for example, came from British Malaya and the Dutch East Indies. A lot of tin came from Malaya as well.

Congress and Roosevelt were being appropriately cautious. And within a short time they had stockpiled hundreds of thousands of tons of these strategic assets.

Then came the War. Then Pearl Harbor. And then full-blown economic chaos.

By March 1942, for example, Japanese troops had overrun Malaya and the Dutch East Indies… meaning that about 90% of America’s rubber supply vanished overnight. Fortunately, their foresight to build stockpiles cushioned the blow.

This critical lesson in self-sufficiency is easily forgotten. As long as global peace and cooperation feel permanent, governments never think about resource scarcity. They assume they will always be able to trade for what they need… so why waste money stockpiling?

But global peace and cooperation can quickly turn to conflict and tension, and that is the environment we are in today.

The last major global conflict was World War II. Before it was over, 730 delegates from 44 nations literally sat down at a conference and hammered out a new framework for economic cooperation that made the US dollar the world’s undisputed reserve currency.

As a result, every country on earth has parked its savings in US government bonds for the past eight decades.

It hasn’t always been easy. The US formally ended the convertibility between the dollar and gold in the 1970s, and there was some thought to creating a new financial system. But the dollar managed to survive as king.

The dollar’s status has also been at risk throughout this century, between the skyrocketing US national debt and heavy-handed legislation (like FATCA) that the US government forced on the rest of the world.

But, still, the dollar survived. And foreign countries kept buying dollars and Treasury bonds.

But everyone has a breaking point, including foreign countries.

The US government’s response to freeze Russian assets in 2022 was the start. Then came last year’s so-called “Liberation Day”, when decades of trade policy were upended, overnight. Then came the Iran war. And now a $40 trillion national debt with no end in sight.

This has all been enough for foreign governments and central banks to finally reverse course; at first they slowed their purchases of US Treasury bonds. Now they’re actually selling… and diversifying away from the dollar.

The immediate beneficiary has been gold. And we’ve written about this— gold is the most logical asset for central bank diversification because it is already a traditional reserve asset… plus the gold market is very large and liquid.

We believe this trend will continue; gold prices will rise as a result, and quality mining companies should prosper.

But there’s a second element to this diversification story.

After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz— which carried a fifth of the world’s oil and a host of other critical resources— every government on the planet re-learned the same lesson of World War II: trade and cooperation can vanish in an instant.

And now the entire globe feels a sense of urgency to prepare for the next conflict.

Will China invade Taiwan? Will the US and China go to war? Will Russia and NATO come to blows? Nobody knows, and no government wants to be caught flat-footed, unable to import the critical resources that their economies need to function.

In Roosevelt’s era it was things like rubber and tin.

Today, these critical resources (what we refer to as ‘real assets’) start with energy— oil, natural gas, even coal… plus uranium for some countries.

Now, not every commodity is a real asset. Sugar is a commodity… but the world would be just fine without it. No government is going to stockpile orange juice, lumber, or wool. Or even rubber anymore.

But cut off a country’s oil supply and it reverts to the Dark Ages.

That’s why countries are now stockpiling the strategic assets that are the vital inputs to their economies: copper, rare earths, and even the IP and hardware that power AI.

China is the clearest example. In 2025 alone it added more than a million barrels a day to an oil stockpile and now holds roughly 1.4 billion barrels— the world’s largest reserve.

When Hormuz closed and the US and 31 other countries released 400 million barrels from their emergency reserves, China barely touched its pile and by July was adding to it again.

Its nuclear-fuel imports hit a record last year too, far beyond what its reactors burn; the excess went into stockpiles. And this summer Beijing put a new $9 billion state company in charge of buying mines around the world.

Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, produces plenty of oil, so they don’t need to stockpile it. But they are building nearly two gigawatts of data centers at home rather than risk being cut off from computing power.

A government that sells a Treasury still has to put the money somewhere, and the sensible places are the assets that the US government cannot freeze… and that no central bank can print. That is why the long-term direction of gold is still up.

But it’s also why energy, industrial metals, productive technology, and other vital resources— plus the companies which produce them— have a bright future.

This is the thesis behind Schiff Sovereign’s investment research newsletter, Strategic Assets. A world that no longer trusts the US government moves into gold, and a world that can no longer count on trade cooperation secures its own stockpiles.

We provide research on companies that mine, pump, and build what governments are stockpiling.

Subscribers who acted on our research locked in more than 10x on a small silver producer and more than 6x on a gold and silver producer, both in under a year.

A tin producer featured last summer is up more than 3x, a zinc producer more than 2.5x, and a tanker company about 2.5x. Across the companies we have closed out, winners and losers together, the average return is 172%.

We cordially invite you to learn more about Strategic Assets by clicking here.

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In 2012, a 76-year-old Vietnam veteran named Jerry Meekins bought a $197 Spirit Airlines ticket to Atlantic City to visit his daughter.

Then his doctor told him two things: he had terminal cancer, and he could not fly. Meekins asked for his money back. Spirit said no.

He offered a letter from his oncologist, hospice paperwork, even his prepaid funeral package. Spirit wouldn’t look. CEO Ben Baldanza publicly blamed the dying man for not buying travel insurance. A week of national outrage later, Baldanza caved and refunded the fare himself.

It was not out of character. Five years earlier, Baldanza hit reply-all on a complaint from a passenger whose delayed flight cost him the concert he was flying to see. “We owe him nothing as far as I’m concerned,” the CEO wrote. “Let him tell the world how bad we are. He’s never flown us before anyway and will be back when we save him a penny.”

That was Spirit’s business model: treat customers like garbage and bet they’ll crawl back for a penny. Unsurprisingly, they went bankrupt.

Rule #1 in business is ‘the customer is always right’. At a minimum, businesses know that they need to treat paying customers with basic courtesy. Duh.

But governments never learn that lesson; they don’t have to extend any courtesy because they take your money at the point of a gun.

Rob Streeper has lived in his San Antonio home for 18 years. In June, the city’s code enforcement office sent him a notice of violation because a tree on his property had a branch that was hanging too low over the public sidewalk.

Fair enough. Keeping the sidewalks passable is all part of the mundane administrivia of municipal government. But there was just one problem: a bird was nesting on that particular branch of Mr. Streeper’s tree.

Streeper is apparently a staunch rule follower, because he called the US Fish and Wildlife Service to ask what to do. A federal agent told him that removing an active nest violates the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918, which carries up to six months in prison and a $15,000 fine.

In other words, the local government was threatening to fine him for failing to commit a federal crime. And he pays taxes to fund both his city council as well as the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Streeper reported this back to the city, and even made clear that once nesting season ends, “we have no problem with cutting the branch.”

None of it mattered. Two months later, a $300 citation appeared. “Nobody talked to us,” he said. “They just taped it to the door.”

Eventually a code enforcement officer told him what was really going on: a neighbor had been calling the city every single day to complain about the branch.

From a bureaucrat’s perspective, the path of least resistance was to simply issue the fine, and ignore the injustice of it. After all, the bureaucrat wouldn’t suffer for any of it.

And at no point in this story does a judge or jury appear. Streeper could have technically contested the ticket in municipal court, and a jury of random strangers would have sided with him in a heartbeat. But that means a court date, days off work, and more weeks of the machine, all over a $300 ticket that should never have existed.

In many respects the process IS the punishment. The government never needs to be right— but it is more expensive to fight them than to obey them.

What finally fixed it was a TV camera. On August 14 at 10:59 a.m., one minute before a KSAT 12 news crew pulled up to the house, Streeper’s phone rang. It was a city official named Michael Uresti, calling to say the matter had “reached my level.”

The ticket was dismissed, the branch received a stay of execution (until late September), and the common sense that went missing for two months turned up in sixty seconds.

“It took telling the code compliance people that [local news crews] were involved for them to finally back off,” Streeper said.

Until then, not a single bureaucrat who touched this case felt compelled to stop it.

This is how the whole system works. In 2021, for example, the Biden administration ordered its contractors to vaccinate their employees, while Texas banned employers from mandating vaccines at all.

Companies faced an impossible choice: break state law, or lose their federal contracts. It took lawsuits from 26 states and a federal injunction to sort out the mess.

Or ask Mike and Chantell Sackett, who bought a $23,000 lot in Idaho and started building a home. The EPA showed up, declared their land a federally protected wetland, and threatened penalties of over $40,000 per day.

Better yet, the agency insisted no court in America even had the power to review its order. The Sacketts needed sixteen years and two unanimous Supreme Court decisions to win— the first just to establish their right to be heard at all.

And those were the lucky ones. The contractors had 26 state attorneys general. The Sacketts had a public-interest law firm and sixteen years of patience. Streeper had a news crew.

But if you don’t have lawyers, politicians, or cameras on your side, you just get pummeled by the system.

That’s what happens when there are so many rules, so many agencies, and so many levels of government. Compliance with the law becomes impossible.

Meanwhile, government doesn’t uphold its end of the bargain. It can’t be bothered to stop the riot outside a citizen’s house or clear the drug pushers from his sidewalk. But bureaucrats will happily wreck someone’s life over an errant tree branch.

And the tree branch is the smallest version of the story. The Federal Reserve destroyed a quarter of the dollar’s value in five years. Congress ran the national debt to $40 trillion while letting Social Security race toward insolvency.

Nobody has answered for any of this incompetence, and nobody ever will. The consequences and penalties are reserved for a man with a bird’s nest in his tree.

A government that does this has lost its way, lost its moral compass.

This is simply not how you treat anyone, let alone your own citizens. And it is not what a functioning free society looks like.

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In June of 1944, American soldiers were storming the beaches of Normandy, leading the fight to defeat the Nazis.

Back home, Americans gave everything they had. Some 85 million bought war bonds. The top income tax rate hit 94%, the highest in US history. Even ordinary people paid more and more income tax to support the war effort.

This was the absolute peak of American patriotism and record high tax rates. And yet overall government tax revenue still only came to just 20.5% of GDP.

This matters. In the eight decades since the end of World War II, tax revenue in the United States has averaged between 17% and 18% of GDP… with very little variation.

The low was 14.2% in 1950, coming out of a recession, and the high was 20.0% in 2000, at the peak of the dot-com boom when capital gains tax rates were through the roof.

Yet throughout those eight decades, the overall average has remained quite steady— 17% to 18%… even though corporate and individual tax rates have been all over the board over the same period.

The reason is simple: as tax rates go up and down, people and businesses adjust their behavior. If marginal tax rates skyrocket, people stuff their earnings into tax shelters. Or they defer revenue. Or they come up with any number of ways to legally reduce what they owe.

It’s human nature.

You probably heard that the US national debt just crossed $40 trillion yesterday. And on its current trajectory, there is no end in sight to the growth of that debt.

The federal government now routinely posts ~$2 trillion annual deficits… during periods of relative peace and prosperity.

Plenty of people (especially on the left) believe the answer is to tax the rich: sky-high marginal rates, wealth taxes, etc. But the historical data show that higher tax rates cannot and will not solve the problem.

According to IRS data, imposing a tax rate of 90% on people earning $2MM per year or more would theoretically generate $200 to $300 billion in additional tax revenue.

But remember human nature: people would very quickly change their behavior and restructure their affairs, and so the real additional tax revenue would collapse to less than $50 billion per year.

The same goes for a wealth tax. Charging billionaires and centimillionaires a percentage of their unrealized gains sounds like a nice idea to a socialist. But the consequences would offset most (if not all) of the additional revenue.

If Elon Musk were forced to sell 10% of his stock to pay a wealth tax, the share prices of Tesla and SpaceX would plummet.

Sure, the IRS would collect more money from Musk himself. But, nationwide, overall capital gains tax revenue would fall dramatically. So net tax revenue would barely budge.

The point is there are always consequences to raising taxes: less economic activity, slower growth, and higher unemployment. No country in history has ever taxed its way to prosperity.

What’s crazy is that an economy as large and dynamic as America’s doesn’t even need to run a balanced budget. Even a $1 trillion annual deficit would be OK— and a huge step in the right direction. The national debt would still grow, but as a percentage of GDP, it would shrink.

And it’s not hard to get there. The low-hanging fruit is obvious: the Government Accountability Office, the federal government’s own watchdog, estimates that hundreds of billions of dollars are lost to outright fraud and theft every single year.

Yet Congress doesn’t seem to want to even try to eliminate obvious fraud.

And that’s the easy stuff.

The harder part would be streamlining government operations and cutting waste and inefficiency… which could easily generate hundreds of billions in savings.

Harder still would be reforming entitlements, fixing immigration, and taking a chainsaw to the Code of Federal Regulations… all of which could trim spending and/or grow the economy (and hence increase tax revenue).

Again, the national debt is $40 trillion, yet Congress won’t even do the easy stuff to fix it. Even worse, the media and the courts actively block and obstruct the people who do try.

We can hope that common sense will one day prevail, and that AI and nuclear power will supercharge the US economy to the point where America grows its way out of debt.

But in the meantime, there are now 40 trillion reasons to have a Plan B.

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If you were to head to Bloomberg, CNBC, or Yahoo Finance this morning and see virtually all green across the board in US markets, you wouldn’t think it’s a sad day for America.

And yet, despite stocks being up and investors positively effervescent, it is indeed a sad day, because today marks the first real capitulation by the Treasury Department.

Stocks are up because the Treasury Department announced this morning that it will double repurchases of long-dated government bonds. If that sounds boring and mundane, it’s not.

For the past several weeks, Treasury yields have been skyrocketing. Our readers won’t be surprised by this— we’ve been predicting this and telling the story for quite some time.

In short, the bond market is rapidly losing confidence in America. And that’s especially true for foreign governments and central banks.

For most of the past eighty years, pretty much every foreign government on the planet parked their national savings in US government bonds. It was a no-brainer. US Treasury bonds paid interest. They were extremely liquid and could be sold in seconds. And they are backed by the wealthiest, most powerful, most creditworthy nation on Earth.

So the rest of the world happily lent their financial surpluses to the US government and asked few questions.

At peak (in 2011), foreigners owned nearly half of all marketable US Treasury bonds. Fifteen years later they hold less than a third, and that proportion is sliding quickly.

Earlier this week the Treasury Department reported that foreigners continue to trim their holdings of US government bonds. In fact, so far this year, foreigners have only purchased 7% of net US debt issuance. In June, their purchases of Treasury bonds and notes fell 88% in a single month, and once you add in the Treasury bills they sold, foreigners were net SELLERS of US government debt.

It’s not hard to understand why; between the political theater, rising deficits, and inability to cut even obvious fraud, foreigners are no longer as willing to risk lending money to America… especially when they have to take that risk for three decades (i.e. holding a 30-year Treasury bond).

As a result, foreigners are selling. And as they sell, the natural consequence of the bond market is that Treasury yields have been rising… especially for the least popular securities like the 30-year Treasury bond.

This morning the US government officially staged an intervention. They signaled to the bond market, and to the world, that they’re willing to step in and buy back their own debt in order to prop up the market.

Investors cheered. But, again, this is actually quite sad news. It is tantamount to the Treasury Department capitulating and acknowledging that they have lost the confidence of foreign investors.

We’ve been writing about this trend for quite some time, encouraging our readers to consider investing in gold… as well as gold producers.

In our most recent edition of Schiff Sovereign: Premium, for example, we wrote about three major gold companies that we believed were significantly undervalued. They’re all up 10% just this morning… because gold is on an absolute tear.

Why gold?

As foreign governments and central banks have been moving out of US dollars, they’ve had to park that money into some other asset. At the moment, gold is realistically the only viable strategic reserve asset that is extremely liquid, widely accepted around the world, and carries zero counter-party risk.

Foreign countries have already been buying up gold over the past few years as their confidence in the US has waned; from 2022 through 2025 they bought a few hundred billion dollars’ worth— roughly 2% of their financial reserves. And that modest purchase alone took the gold price from about $1,600 to more than $4,000.

Global central banks are back in the gold market buying again today. And since we can’t exactly hold our breath that the US government is going to get its fiscal house in order anytime soon, we can only conclude that the central bank gold-buying trend will continue… and accelerate.

This trend is bad for America. But it’s good for gold. And it’s even better for gold producers.

P.S. One of the other companies we’ve covered in Premium, a gold producer, is up a bit this week, but we still think it is wildly undervalued. So does its own CEO, who told analysts on this week’s earnings call that the company is “significantly undervalued.”

It has no debt, just reported the most profitable first half in its history, and trades at roughly two times its annual cash flow.

We walk through the numbers in our latest edition of Schiff Sovereign: Premium, which is just $9 per month. Click here to learn more.

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Four years ago this month, Washington passed a law and named it, with a straight face, the Inflation Reduction Act.

Bizarrely, their plan to ‘reduce inflation’, which had been caused by excessive government spending, was for the government to spend even more money. It’s genius!

Among its various provisions, part of the legislation authorized the government to negotiate prescription drug prices. Seems like a nice idea in principle… but in practice it’s been a disaster.

The Congressional Budget Office released the results late last month: the Medicare drug provisions that were supposed to generate $129 billion in savings will now add $700 billion to the deficit.

Sometimes it seems like this is the whole idea; given the rampant Medicare fraud that gets uncovered on a daily basis, it’s clear that politicians have an incentive to steer MORE money into the program.

Healthcare is the easiest spending in Washington to justify. Every dollar comes with the same argument: if we don’t spend on healthcare, people will die!

It ends up being so much money— a giant, dark pool of corruption— and a lot of it gets funneled straight back into the political process as campaign contributions. And it’s been going on for ages.

Back in 2002, for example, America’s biggest health-care workers union spent about $800,000 electing Rod Blagojevich governor of Illinois. He later thanked them “for electing me governor.”

Weeks after he took office, Blagojevich signed multiple executive orders that fattened the union’s pockets, like forcing more healthcare workers to join… and automatically deducting union dues from their paychecks. Bad for the unionized workers, but great for the union bosses.

In New York, the Greater New York Hospital Association wrote two checks totaling more than $1 million to the state Democratic Party in August 2018, at then-Governor Andrew Cuomo’s campaign’s request.

Three months later the state ordered its first across-the-board Medicaid rate increase since 2008, worth about $140 million a year. Great news for the hospital association.

The cycle never ends— the unions and associations scratch the politicians’ backs, and in turn get their backs scratched. No one can rationally expect those parties to walk away from their mutual benefit.

And this is just the ‘honest’ graft and corruption… it doesn’t take into account the outright fraud.

During COVID, Medicare paid for eight test kits per month, per person, in America. Yet an inspector general later found it paid up to $454 million for nearly 39 million kits over that limit.

In June, the Justice Department found over $6.5 billion in fake health-care claims. Yet agents recovered only $182 million in cash and assets, less than three cents per dollar of fraud.

In one instance, a pair of adult day care operators fraudulently billed Medicare and Medicaid $120 million over a decade. One of their centers claimed 1,041 attendees in a single day while the building’s occupancy limit was 81.

Then Nick Shirley walked into the neighborhood’s facilities with a camera this summer and turned up $190 million more in suspicious billing.

And yet very little of the fraud gets stopped… in large part because a portion of what they steal from the government is funneled back to the politicians (mostly on the Left) who vote for more Medicare spending.

These same politicians install activist judges at the state and federal level, ensuring that anyone who tries to stop the fraud will be sued… and blocked by the courts.

As an example, last year Congress voted to cut off Planned Parenthood from Medicaid for one year.

Planned Parenthood sued. Judge Indira Talwani, an Obama appointee in Boston, dutifully blocked the cut within weeks, and the appeals court had to overrule her twice before the law could take effect.

Feeding Our Future, the Minnesota child-meal Somali fraud network, had the audacity to sue the state for racial discrimination when the fraudulent money train slowed down.

It’s extraordinary; there are so many checks-and-balances in place to keep the graft  going.

The politicians vote to keep the money moving. The judges defend it to the last Somali. And the activists and the media scream that anyone asking questions is racist; Governor Tim Walz called the fraud talk “vile, racist lies.”

The teachers’ unions march the kids out of school for union causes and No Kings rallies, as if the kids had any idea what they were marching for. And the universities continue the socialist indoctrination.

Media, education, courts: the whole institutional layer exists to keep the money flowing.

So of course they want more of it.

Senator Bernie Sanders reintroduced Medicare for All last year, and the movement that just made Zohran Mamdani mayor of New York wants to make this slush fund the entire health-care system.

Even the most conservative estimate puts the price at $32.6 trillion over the first decade; that’s an astonishing amount of potential fraud.

The US could get its fiscal house in order if it shut this slush fund down. But the graft is deeply entrenched… so it’s likely that US deficit spending will continue in order to pay for it all.

Foreign governments have reached the same conclusion: The US has to go deeper into debt in order to finance hundreds of billions of dollars in fraud.

That’s a major reason why foreign governments and central banks are diversifying away from the dollar. And with no obvious global currency to park their financial reserves into, they buy gold.

We have been making this argument for the past few years, since gold was below $1800. This sort of news makes the case even more strongly: the story hasn’t changed… and gold remains a great hedge for the fiscal uncertainty to come.

PS: In this month’s Schiff Sovereign Premium, we made the case for a gold producer built for exactly this outlook: a debt-free, dividend-paying, highly successful gold company which just had the most profitable first-half in its company history. But it only trades at 2x cash flow.

If the fraud and deficits continue, gold should do very well… and successful producers can do even better.

Click here to learn more about Schiff Sovereign Premium.

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