Today’s issue in preview:

• This explosive, high upside sector is running higher. Do you own it?

• This industry has enormous upside potential. How to trade it from here.

• The most important bull market the mainstream media isn’t covering for you

• Learn our Top Themes to buy now

This industry has enormous upside potential. How to trade it from here

Credit: Walter Cicchetti

After trading sickly for two months, it looks like the trend in space stocks is getting healthy again.

Money & Megatrends readers in good standing will recall our belief that space-related industries will enjoy tremendous growth and generate many large stock market winners over the next five years.

On Sept. 22, 2025, I wrote a bullish piece on space stocks and said it’s a sector that the “public could go wild for.” I stated the bull case like this:

When people think of investing in space, they often go towards the business of launching rockets and Elon Musk’s SpaceX. But many of the most promising “space stocks” are in the business of space-based communication platforms and equipment. Think government surveillance, military communication, GPS, internet service, and cell service.

The best big picture fundamental case for space stocks right now is that the Trump administration believes America is in a hugely important competition with China and other countries for “space dominance.” This means regulatory and financial support for the U.S. space industry.

… Top performing individual space names worth checking out include Rocket Lab (RKLB), BlackSky (BKSY), Planet Labs PBC (PL), and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).

Soon after our note, many space stocks soared 50%-100%, powered in part by anticipation of SpaceX’s (SPCX) gigantic IPO in June.

After that runup, however, space stocks experienced a large correction. I viewed this correction as natural, given its huge preceding run-up. No sector runs higher week after week in a straight line. The space trade needed to “work off” a lot of froth and enthusiasm.

As you can see in the one-year chart below of the Procure Space ETF (UFO), the space theme looks to have formed a bottom in the mid-$40 per share range.

This is also where the fund traded in a sideways consolidation earlier this year. UFO used this price level as a base to mount an assault on the $48-per-share area, which it reached last week.

This bit of positive price action is enough for me to say the space theme is likely in a healthy uptrend again, which means the tailwinds are shifting back in favor of long positions.

We still like the names above and the ETF above… and we’ll be sharing more ideas and analysis on this trend soon.

The most important bull market the mainstream media isn’t covering for you

Credit: Traimak_Ivan

If you’re looking for some good news or a reason to be optimistic on America, look no further: The Invesco S&P SmallCap Industrials ETF (PSCI) is in a bull market… and just pennies from reaching a new all-time high.

That’s good for America… and good for your 401(k).

PSCI is one of the most important ETFs you’re probably not following. It holds a diversified basket of critical but lesser-known U.S. manufacturing firms.

These companies typically don’t make the front page. There’s no “rock star” CEO like Elon Musk in this area of the market.

These firms operate with little fanfare, providing critical equipment and services the U.S. economy cannot function without. You may not know them, but you most certainly encounter their products when you walk into an office, turn on your car, or flip on the lights.

Our factories, vehicles, homes, and cities cannot function without their specialized pumps, motors, filters, fans, valves, fasteners, tools, gaskets, wiring, bearings, and switches. These businesses are the backbone of the American economy. And they are doing great.

In late 2025 and early 2026, I frequently highlighted how many critical, yet unrecognized U.S. manufacturers were reporting excellent business results and enjoying rising stock prices. At the time, PSCI was regularly registering new all-time highs.

However, PSCI suffered an Iran War-induced selloff alongside the broader market. Shares dropped 14% in six weeks. Since then, PSCI has surged to new highs. As you can see in the chart below, the fund is in a beautiful three-year uptrend.

This exceptional price strength means the economy is doing very well. We are making and buying lots of trucks, tractors, concrete, steel, engines, HVAC systems, data centers, power plants, transmission lines, and communication networks.

The stock market is one of the world’s greatest forecasting mechanisms. It tends to look ahead 6-12 months. When an industry is in a recession, its stock prices will rise before the news media says it is recovering. When an industry seems to be doing well, its stock prices will decline before the news covers its downturn. This is often called “discounting the future.”

There’s a variety of negatives at work inside the U.S. economy. Stock market bears and pessimists can find all kinds of reasons to avoid stocks. But new all-time highs in industrial stocks mean the evidence is working against them.

This explosive, high upside sector is running higher. Do you own it?

Credit: gorodenkoff

This morning, shares of giant biotechnology firm Amgen (AMGN) advanced 1.3% to reach a new all-time high.

Amgen is the largest holding in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB), so its strong performance helped push the fund to a new all-time high.

These important moves mean the biotechnology bull market is alive and well… and full of opportunity. They also make our recommendation to invest in this theme a very large winner.

On Aug. 18, 2025, I sent a research note to colleagues outlining my bullish view of the biotech sector’s price action. Since then, I’ve written more than a dozen updates on the biotech bull market, as IBB has risen 46.8%, far outpacing the S&P’s 19.5% return.

IBB focuses on large biotech firms such as Amgen (AMGN), Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), and Gilead Sciences (GILD). The S&P Biotech ETF (XBI), which focuses on smaller biotechs, has risen 76.9% compared to the S&P’s 19.5% return.

The biotechnology sector comprises companies working on cures and treatments for hundreds of diseases. When investors grow interested in this industry, the returns can be incredible. During the last biotech bull market, the sector soared 300% over four years.

Biotech performed poorly from 2021 through 2025, so most investors are indifferent to it. But I see major potential here. This industry is poised to generate many stock market doubles and triples over the coming decade.

The fusion of AI plus biology will generate dozens of compelling stock narratives over the coming years. Researchers running superintelligent AI programs will be able to run millions of digital simulations of drugs and treatments. This will put medical innovation into overdrive… and create many big stock market winners.

Companies that leverage AI to “crack the code” for various diseases, treatments and drugs will enjoy 100%… 500%… even 1,000%+ stock rallies.

In many cases, these rallies will happen thanks to stories and potential… rather than a company generating revenue or earnings.

Capitalizing on many of today’s biggest stock market trends means focusing on promise over profits. The biotech sector holds the potential for both.

Biotech has another powerful factor working in its favor: Virtual anonymity.

The investment public is largely indifferent to the biotech industry right now. Investment newsletter sales related to biotech are tiny. Biotech specialists posting on X get scant attention. CNBC does not have a show devoted to biotech. Presentations on biotechnology stocks are not popular at investment conferences.

If I were to bring up biotech investing to a group of casual, amateur investors, I’d get blank stares in return. This “state of indifference” is very bullish for biotech stocks.

When the investment public is indifferent towards a powerful theme, it tells you valuations have not been bid up to unrealistic levels… so there’s plenty of room to grow into high valuations. Plus, it means there’s a lot of money on the sidelines that could eventually pile into the trend, sending it much higher.

In other words, “A strong industry uptrend + public indifference towards that industry” is one of the greatest moneymaking equations in all of finance.

Investors with the time to spend on picking individual biotech stocks and managing the positions can generate large returns in a biotech industry uptrend. For example, over the past year, at least 14 companies with “therapeutics” in their names have delivered returns of 300%+ or more.

If you don’t want to spend time researching and managing individual biotech stock positions, ETFs can get you exposure to this industry. XBI and IBB are worth considering.

The biotech industry has tremendous price momentum working in its favor… plus the investment public is largely indifferent to its success. This is a powerful combination that makes more new highs a high-probability bet.

Market Notes

• The uptrend we highlighted in psychedelic medicine stocks has become a big winner. The AdvisorShares Psychedelics ETF (PSIL) is up 55% since our bullish March 16 note. The fund is benefiting from expectations that the U.S. government will ease regulations related to psychedelic treatments.

• Our September 2025 recommendation to own oil and gas stocks continues to be a winner. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) reached a new all-time high today. XLE is the world’s largest oil stock ETF.

• Our recommendation to own oil and gas pipeline stocks continues to be a huge winner. The Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP) reached a new all-time high this week.

• The bull market in health care diagnostics we’ve been highlighting continues to generate winners. Diagnostics giant Labcorp (LH) reached a new all-time high today.

• The Iran War and its constriction of Middle Eastern oil supplies continue to work to the advantage of U.S. oil refiners. Industry giants Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Valero Energy (VLO) reached new all-time highs today.

Regards,

Brian Hunt
Editor, Money & Megatrends

An urgent message from our colleagues:

SpaceX ‘Dark Energy’ Replaces Foreign Oil

For years, we’ve been told SpaceX is a rocket company. But according to new satellite images from 300 miles above the Earth’s surface, there is something very strange going on at SpaceX right now that has nothing to do with space. It could soon replace our need for foreign oil forever and ignite a $10 trillion boom for the stocks involved.

Click here to learn more.

The post This explosive, high upside sector is running higher. Do you own it? appeared first on MarketWise.

It is looking increasingly likely that SpaceX (SPCX) will acquire carmaker Tesla (TSLA), with even SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk not denying the possibility. While the move could make some sense for operational and business reasons, Musk’s insatiable ego is the driving factor.

But as pessimistic as I was about the rationale for the merger, I still failed to account for a key reason for Musk to merge the two firms: He stands to earn megabucks in performance bonuses from Tesla as part of the $1 trillion compensation package he signed with the carmaker last year.

For investors in Tesla and SpaceX, the ultimate question is really: Will SpaceX vastly overpay for Tesla, hurting SpaceX investors for the benefit of Tesla investors? Or will SpaceX offer a fair price for Tesla, thereby reducing the stock price of the massively inflated Tesla and benefiting SpaceX investors?

The best prediction is probably to look at Musk’s compensation package and determine the circumstances in which he benefits most.

Here’s How Elon Musk Benefits in a SpaceX-Tesla Merger

Musk benefits in the event of a takeover of Tesla, due to his 2025 CEO Performance Award Agreement with Tesla. The agreement laid out 12 different awards that Musk could earn for achieving various operational goals, such as delivering 20 million Tesla vehicles, or by market capitalization goals such as Tesla being valued at $2 trillion or $2.5 trillion, for example.

For each of the 12 levels, Musk could earn more than 35.3 million shares of Tesla, which are currently worth about $11.5 billion at a stock price of $326.

But achieving the operational goals is not necessary in the event of a change of control, such as if SpaceX acquires Tesla. In this case, all that needs to happen is for Tesla’s market cap to exceed one or more of the thresholds for Musk to achieve at least some of the shares.

At a share price of $500 – where Tesla’s market cap is about $2 trillion – each 35.3-million-share tranche is worth nearly $18 billion. So, the bigger the size of the deal, the larger his payday could become, as he earns more shares at a higher valuation.

Because Musk owns supervoting stock in SpaceX that gives him effective control of the company, he has a strong ability to decide whether SpaceX acquires Tesla and at what price. So, he has both the incentive to overpay for Tesla and the means to make a merger occur.

Given his strong voting position in SpaceX, he can even overpay for Tesla using SpaceX stock while still maintaining effective control of the newly merged firm, as a Wall Street Journal article shows. Even if SpaceX pays at the top of the compensation range for Tesla – a whopping $8.5 trillion – Musk would still hold control of the merged company, with about 56% of the vote.

At that level, he’d add more than $800 billion to his personal wealth, soaking SpaceX investors by massively overpaying for Tesla stock. Again, there’s that conflict of interest.

This level of self-dealing – It may all be too much for even the most ardent Musk fans, despite all the opportunity inside the company: rocket ships, Starlink satellites, Optimus robots, Terafab, as well as the hidden financial business inside SpaceX.

Tesla Explores Divesting Its China Business

A SpaceX-Tesla merger might require Tesla to separate its Chinese business in some form, and Tesla has been exploring that possibility, according to the Wall Street Journal. While Musk called the article “fake news,” a divestiture would prove problematic, given Tesla’s enormous valuation.

The concern here is that SpaceX is a significant defense contractor, with the federal government making up 20.9% of its 2025 sales. With SpaceX units such as top-secret satellites, the U.S. would want some separation between the company and China. At the same time, China would take a close look at a SpaceX merger if it led to a U.S. contractor controlling Tesla factories.

Tesla executives have been told to prepare for the Chinese unit to be hived off, whether that’s a spinoff, a sale, or even a closure. A sale or spinoff could prove particularly problematic because it would cause a standalone Chinese unit to be valued separately from Tesla as a whole.

A standalone valuation of the China unit will prove problematic because Tesla is so overvalued to start with. Tesla might actually be worth 80%, 90%, or maybe 95% less than today’s value, about $1.3 trillion, but Tesla enjoys a Musk premium, a price boost because Musk is at the helm.

But a strategic acquirer such as another car company will not purchase Tesla China at a price that’s 5 to 20 times higher than its actually worth, as the stock market is doing. So, a sale of the China unit at something near fair value necessarily means that the remaining non-China units are being priced by the market at an even more massive overvaluation, given their assets.

In this case, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla near its current price implies a huge overpayment for the remaining Tesla assets. In other words, SpaceX investors get hosed, while Tesla investors enjoy a huge windfall by selling their overinflated assets – one reason Tesla is too risky to short.

A spinoff of Tesla China into a separate publicly traded company isn’t likely to solve the problem either. If the market is not willing to award the spinoff a Musk premium, it’s not going to fetch the kind of price that it’s currently doing inside Tesla today, where it’s likely 5 to 20 times overvalued. In this case, SpaceX would again vastly overpay for the remaining Tesla assets, soaking investors.

Given the huge difficulties created by Tesla’s overvaluation, the company has been exploring other ways of “firewalling” the Tesla China unit from the rest of the business.

Why SpaceX Is Likely to Acquire Tesla

Besides the personal payday for Musk, Musk may seek to combine SpaceX and Tesla for a variety of other reasons:

• Musk has a history of merging companies to paper over bad news: Tesla bought the debt-laden SolarCity in 2016, of which Musk owned 20%. The move bailed out Musk’s personal investment in the renewable energy company, which his cousins managed.

• A merger puts Musk in total control:Musk runs the whole ship at SpaceX through his supervoting stock, and a purchase of Tesla may mean that he can simply ignore investors who want to challenge his decisions or compensation, for instance.

• A SpaceX-Tesla merger stokes Musk’s ego:A merger would put the Musk-helmed company among the world’s largest companies by market capitalization.

Investors should expect to see more of Musk and his team laying the groundwork for a potential merger in the coming quarters, much as he did in the last earnings call:

Well, as you can tell from all the many collaborations on so many fronts with SpaceX, there’s more and more overlap, especially with Terafab, that’s really going to be a gigantic project. Obviously, we can’t talk about combining companies and that kind of thing on an earnings call. It’s got to be done with the appropriate process.

This kind of non-denial shows that Musk is likely to be actively pursuing a merger, and it’s only a matter of time before we get the details. As we’ve seen in Musk’s recent deals, he’s going to come out of it just fine. The real question is which investor group – SpaceX’s or Tesla’s – gets worked over harder. It looks like Musk’s money is riding on SpaceX to pay up for Tesla.

Regards,

James Royal, PhD

Editor’s Note: Elon Musk revived the electric car, pioneered reusable rockets, and beamed down internet to the four corners of the Earth. But his new initiative – “XPANSE” – could be bolder… more transformative… and far more lucrative than all of these innovations combined. And, like Tesla and SpaceX, it could make early investors incredibly wealthy. Click here for the details… 

The post Tesla-SpaceX Merger: Here’s How Elon Musk’s Big Potential Payday Could Lead to an Overpay for Investors appeared first on MarketWise.

SpaceX (SPCX), which I’ve long called the most overvalued large-cap stock of all time, reported earnings yesterday after the close…

And even the greatest stock promoter of all time, CEO Elon Musk, couldn’t keep the shares from tumbling as much as 13% early this morning.

Year over year, revenue grew 92% – from roughly $4.1 billion to $7.8 billion. Meanwhile, losses from operations narrowed from about $970 million to $143 million. And “Segment Adjusted EBITDA” (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) grew from around $1.2 billion to $3.5 billion.

SpaceX also said that cash provided by operating activities rose from roughly $351 million to $3.5 billion. However, the company only reported “Selected Cash Flow Information” for the first six months of this year versus that period last year – which is totally unacceptable for one of the most valuable companies on the planet.

Take a look at this breakdown from page 10 of the earnings release:

So why did the stock take such a hit?

Massive Capex Spending Swallows Cash Flows

In part, it’s because of a massive increase in capital expenditures (“capex”) – largely in the company’s AI division (which includes chatbot Grok and social media platform X).

Take a look at the breakdown here on page 3 of the release:

The company’s roughly $28.5 billion capex amounted to more than 8 times its $3.5 billion operating cash flow. As a result, SpaceX’s free cash flow (“FCF”) was a horrific negative $25 billion in the first six months of the year.

This is consistent with what I wrote in my June 5 e-mail. SpaceX has two great businesses and one terrible one:

… the company’s gem is Starlink. It more than doubled its subscriber count from the first quarter of 2025 and is highly profitable…

Though it lost money in the first quarter, the space-launch business is also unparalleled. It accounts for more than 50% of all worldwide orbital launches and more than 80% of all mass sent into orbit.

But a totally unrelated segment, xAI, is dragging down these two great businesses. It’s burning huge amounts of cash in an attempt to keep up with its much larger competitors – not just [Alphabet’s (GOOGL)] Google but also Meta Platforms (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT), among others.

SPCX Float Creates a Drag on its Share Price

Another major factor weighing on the stock is that the number of SpaceX shares that are eligible to trade (its so-called the “float”) nearly tripled. SpaceX sold 555.6 million shares in its June 12 IPO at $135 each – raising about $75 billion while valuing the company at roughly $1.77 trillion.

Under the IPO prospectus, up to 911.5 million shares – about 20% of the early-release eligible pool held by employees and most pre-IPO investors – become transferable just after the first earnings report.

At SpaceX’s price early this morning, that’s around $100 billion of stock.

I have to imagine that many holders will be eager to sell to diversify – especially in light of the stock’s absurd valuation.

And that’s the main problem with SpaceX’s stock…

With a tiny float of 4% to 5% since the June 12 IPO and a huge $500 million payoff to the Wall Street banks – whose analysts of course debased themselves pumping it (as I covered in my July 9 e-mail) – the stock was manipulated to the moon.

What SpaceX Might Actually Be Worth

The company just reported around $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue. Annualized, that comes out to roughly $31.4 billion.

But on the conference call, Musk said SpaceX will reach a $100 billion annual revenue run rate (“ARR”) by the end of the year thanks to AI compute deals.

This is as ridiculous as his claim a year ago that, by the end of 2025, Tesla (TSLA) would be serving half of the American population with fully autonomous robotaxis. The actual number at year end was roughly 15 robotaxis in one city – Austin, Texas.

Being extremely generous, I’ll give SpaceX a $50 billion ARR by year-end and an equally generous multiple of 10 times revenue. That’s $500 billion.

The stock price decline early this morning put the market cap at around $1.5 trillion. That would mean the stock would be overvalued by at least 3 times – by roughly $1 trillion.

I continue to believe that SpaceX is the most overvalued large-cap stock ever.

Editor’s Note: This article was adapted from today’s edition of Whitney Tilson’s Daily. Every day, Whitney emails his readers with his comments on the most important topics of the day, including stocks he’s investigating… great articles he has read… his media and podcast appearances. You can sign up here to receive all of Whitney’s daily thoughts and insights.

The post SpaceX Earnings Show Stock Overvalued by 3x appeared first on MarketWise.