❌

Normal view

  • ✇Porter & Co
  • The Three Secret Dividends Porter &#38 · Co.
    Issue#160, Volume#3Why The Insiders Never Talk About The Dividends That Matter Inside Today’s Issue Essay: The Three Secret Dividends Gold Beats Out Treasuries The Fed Raises Rates Private Credit Slips Again Chart Of The Day… Veeva Systems (VEEV) Poll Results Today’s Mailbag You will not get rich on regular dividends. And you’ve probably never heard of the three kinds of secret dividends that public companies use to make the insiders incredibly rich. The average payout ratio of the S&P
     

The Three Secret Dividends

16 September 2026 at 13:31

Issue#160, Volume#3

Why The Insiders Never Talk About The Dividends That Matter

Inside Today’s Issue

  • Essay: The Three Secret Dividends
  • Gold Beats Out Treasuries
  • The Fed Raises Rates
  • Private Credit Slips Again
  • Chart Of The Day… Veeva Systems (VEEV)
  • Poll Results
  • Today’s Mailbag

You will not get rich on regular dividends.

And you’ve probably never heard of the three kinds of secret dividends that public companies use to make the insiders incredibly rich.

The average payout ratio of the S&P 500 is around 35%.

That means, if you’re counting on regular dividends, you’re missing out on roughly two-thirds of the earnings of the companies you own. Where does all the money really go…?

It probably won’t surprise you that company insiders try very hard to make sure that you never understand where the wealth really accrues. It ain’t the dividend you read about in the paper that matters, that’s for sure. It’s the dividends you never hear about that will make you rich.

Ask me how I know…

In October 2023, while I was CEO of MarketWise (MKTW), our board declared a “special” $50 million cash dividend. This was the largest cash distribution we’d ever made as a public company. It was about 4x more than our regular annual dividends. But it never showed up on the securities databases as an “indicated” dividend. It went virtually unmentioned and unnoticed. It doesn’t even show up as part of the total return in most equity databases. It’s like it never happened.

And unless you were a shareholder on November 10, 2023, you didn’t get any of the money. None. Even if you’d held the stock for years previously. But… if you owned the stock on that one day, you got your pro-rata portion of a huge pile of money. Otherwise, you got zilch.

A trailing 12-month dividend yield divides the regular dividends of the past year by the current share price. But the databases exclude these kinds of “special” or one-time distributions. It’s like they don’t exist. Nasdaq’s methodology only reinvests regular dividends. And market makers deduct special dividends from the price of the stock on the open after the ex-date, when the stock trades “ex-dividend.” So the largest cash payment a company makes in a decade can be absent from the yield figure on public-pricing screens and buried in the return series we use to judge the stock. It’s like they never happened.

But it’s these kinds of huge dividends that will make you rich.

It’s funny how the most powerful thing public companies can do with their cash payments is virtually a secret from the public.

Why? Well because that’s how the insiders want it. High-quality companies that are closely managed and closely held by insiders use these kinds of dividends to massively enrich themselves.

For example, RLI (RLI) is one of America’s leading specialty property-and-casualty (P&C) insurance companies. I’ve followed it and written about it in my newsletters since 2006. They sure wish I wouldn’t…

On May 14, 2026, RLI declared a $2.00 special dividend, expected to total approximately $184 million, payable June 12 to holders of record on May 29. They’ve been paying out most of their profits in this way for decades. Since the Global Financial Crisis, RLI has paid out a total of $611 million in regular dividends. But where did the real money go…? RLI has paid out a total of $1.8 billion in special dividends – 3x more.

Or there’s TransDigm Group (TDG). You’ve probably never heard of the company, but it is the best managed aerospace company in the world. On September 20, 2024, TransDigm declared an enormous special cash dividend of $75.00 per share ($4.4 billion in cash!), paid October 18, 2024, to holders of record on October 4. Where did the money come from? TransDigm borrowed it. Its stated goal is to deliver returns comparable to a well-performing private equity fund – but only to the insiders who know when these huge payments will be made.

Four dates govern every dividend. The declaration date is when the board announces it. The record date is the day you must appear on the company’s books as an owner. The ex-dividend date is the trading cutoff, set by exchange rule rather than by the company. The payment date is when cash arrives.

Since May 28, 2024, American stocks settle one business day after the trade. Buy a stock and you become the owner of record the next business day.

The TransDigm board declared the $75 dividend on September 20, 2024, with a record date of Friday, October 4, and a payment date of Friday, October 18. To collect $75 per share, you had to buy no later than the close on Thursday, October 3, so that the trade settled on October 4.

These big special dividends are fun to track and are great for padding your account with cash. But … there’s a problem with big cash distributions. First, they trigger taxes. And second – and more important – they take capital away from the company, where it will no longer compound.

If you want to become vastly wealthy, you need to look for the second kind of secret dividend.

These are truly invisible. They’re not typically announced. And no payment will reach your account directly, so there’s no taxes you’ll owe. Instead, this is a hidden way of buying more shares. Only… you don’t have to pay for them.

AutoZone (AZO) began paying this kind of secret dividend in 1998. Through November 22, 2025, the company has spent $38.9 billion on these dividends – none of which was announced publicly.

What kind of dividend is this…? The kind that buys more of a company for you, silently and automatically.

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) bought about 10% of American Express (AXP) in 1995. It hasn’t spent a dime on the stock since then, 31 years ago. And yet… today Berkshire owns 22% of one of America’s greatest companies. Berkshire paid $1.29 billion for 10% of American Express. But today it owns 22% … worth almost $50 billion. Without the secret dividends it received, Berkshire’s stake would only be worth $20 billion.

There are many of these kinds of leading secret dividend paying stocks. And, I believe, most of the passive wealth in America today was created through these secret dividends.

My favorite example of America’s leading secret dividend payer is homebuilder NVR (NVR), a company that I’ve been recommending since 2007. It’s just a homebuilder. It’s not rocket science. But it has created massive wealth through its secret dividend program and almost no one knows it even exists.

If you bought 5% of NVR in 1996, it would have cost about $7 million (732,955 shares). You became a major shareholder in a national homebuilder. And you never bought another share. But over the last 30 years, NVR has paid out $17 billion in secret dividends. None of this money hit your account, directly. You paid no tax. But your wealth exploded as a result.

Today, your 732,955 shares would be 26% of the company. Your stake would be worth $4.59 billion. You didn’t just become rich, you became massively wealthy. All from dividends that no one else can see. All you had to do was understand how they work.

These kinds of secret dividends create so much wealth, all the libtards want to make them against the law. And they were against the law until the mid-1980s. I’m convinced there’s simply no better way to become truly wealthy in America. And it’s easy: you literally do nothing and get incredibly rich.

But even they aren’t the best kind of secret dividend.

The best kind of secret dividend is so rare and such a closely guarded financial secret that I honestly shouldn’t ever write about it. If I was smarter, I would never explain this to anyone else – ever. This is, without question, the single greatest wealth secret I have ever discovered.

You see, companies like AutoZone, American Express, and NVR become pretty famous for their secret dividends. A lot of analysts and investors know about these stocks and track the size and scope of their big secret dividends.

But no one has ever told you about HEICO (HEI). And no one ever will.

In 1990 the Mendelson family took control of a tiny $25 million South Florida company with about 200 employees. Laurans Mendelson and his sons Eric and Victor did not attempt a transforming acquisition. They didn’t fire a bunch of people to cut costs and raise profits. They didn’t borrow a ton of money, either. And like a regular business, they paid cash dividends twice a year. HEICO occasionally pays special dividends, too.

But that’s not where the money went. The Mendelsons were amongst the savviest capitalists in the United States. They weren’t going to waste their cash on dividends. HEICO’s payout ratio is 4%. The Mendelsons took 96% of their earnings and they invested in the most valuable secret dividend stream of all…

Look at last year. In fiscal 2025, HEICO reported record net sales of $4.49 billion, up 16%, and record net income of $690.4 million, up 34%, on a consolidated operating margin of 22.7%. Nothing extraordinary. Just a good business with solid growth.

But where did the money go? HEICO completed five acquisitions during the year, three at the Electronic Technologies Group and two at Flight Support, whose net sales have now grown sequentially for 21 consecutive quarters.

Thirty-five years of that arithmetic turned a $25 million company into a company earning $690 million a year.

Instead of paying you cash, HEICO invests your pro rata share of their earnings into better businesses than you can invest in yourself. It manages them. It grows them. And you reap the returns with higher earnings, higher cash dividends, and a vastly higher stock price.

These kinds of special dividends mean you don’t need the stock market to go up to get very rich. These companies are, independent of other factors, their own compounding machines.

Danaher (DHR), AMETEK (AME), Roper Technologies (ROP), and Constellation Software (CNSWF) run this same strategy in life sciences, instruments, vertical software, and industrial niches. These stocks aren’t called private equity firms, but that’s what they do. And they’re among the best in the world at it. They buy small businesses at sensible prices with modest leverage and the returns compound quietly for decades.

Shhhhhh…!

Don’t tell anyone.

Good investing,

F. Porter Stansberry
Stevenson, Maryland

Presented By: Porter & Co.

3 Things To Know Before We Go…

1. Gold Is breaking away – and cementing itself as collateral. The U.S. 10-year real yield sits at 2.6%. By the relationship that governed markets for 25 years, gold should be near $2,000 per ounce. Today it trades around $4,300 an ounce. The chart shows exactly when the two lines separated: the week Washington froze Russia’s reserves because of its invasion of Ukraine. Global central banks reacted. From their perspective, Treasury bonds stopped being a risk-free asset and became a potential tool for U.S. foreign policy. Gold now makes up 27% of their reserves against 22% for Treasurys, the first reversal since 1996, and 89% of reserve managers expect to hold more gold a year from now.

2. The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023 and expects to raise them again. This afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) unanimously lifted its benchmark interest rate a quarter point to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Chairman Kevin Warsh said: “The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.” Sixteen of 18 officials project at least one more increase this year. Whether higher rates will actually lower price inflation is a separate question. Interest on federal debt passed $1 trillion in the first 11 months of this fiscal year, up 13% from a year earlier, and each hike raises it further. The four largest hyperscalers plan more than $700 billion of capital spending this year, funded mostly from cash flow rather than interest-rate-sensitive debt. Consumer spending is being carried by the top of the K – the high-income households who are still spending while lower-income households pull back – and their high cash balances will earn even more as rates rise. But higher rates will do nothing to open the Strait of Hormuz or ease energy supply disruptions.

3. New highs in private credit defaults. Credit ratings agency Fitch revealed that the private credit default rate jumped to 6.3% in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of new highs. With the majority of private loans financed with short-term floating interest rates, the pressure on the sector will likely intensify after the Fed’s decision to raise rates today for the first time in three years. Given the size of this $1.8 trillion asset class, a further rise in default rates could eventually create ripple effects in the broader U.S. economy.

Chart Of The Day… Veeva Systems (VEEV)

In August, Porter recommended the pharmaceutical software platform Veeva Systems (VEEV) to Porter & Co. Biotechnology subscribers. Shares are up 31% since then and 43% over the last six months.

⚙ Edit 🗑 Delete

Just today, Porter released explosive new details as to why we are likely to see this sector take over in dramatic fashion in the near term. To watch Porter’s video – released just hours ago – click here now.

Poll Results… Interest Rates

Yesterday, we asked readers what they thought the FOMC would do regarding interest rates… hike, cut, or keep the same… well, 60% of survey takers selected “increase rates by 25 basis points,” while 34% selected “keep rates where they are.” Just 5% expected a 50-basis-point increase while not one survey takers predicted a rate cut.

Mailbag

“What To Do About P&C”

Jon H. writes:

Thank you so much for the material I have been reading since 2007. It was an education that I never could have afforded on my own.

After reading your rebalancing of Porter’s Permanent Portfolio, I have the following question.

Will your review of these P&C companies be affecting the other Porter & Co. letters?

Thank you again for all you do for us.


Gary C. writes:

In Tuesday’s “Important Allocation Update” in the Daily Journal, you wrote that, for a conservative investor, the recommendation is to stand aside from the P&C insurance industry “until interest rates find a ceiling.

I understand the rationale behind that decision, especially the risks from claims inflation, higher bond yields, and potential valuation compression, and I agree with the rationale.

What I’m trying to understand is how that view fits with the P&C exposure that still exists elsewhere in the Porter & Co. portfolios.

Complete Investor currently holds AXS, CB, IGIC, KNSL, L, PGR, SKWD, and WRB, while the new PCPP ETF provides broader, but still concentrated exposure across a larger group of P&C insurers and offers greater diversification across the sector.

Has this macro view changed your thinking about P&C exposure across those other strategies or portfolios, or is the Permanent Portfolio action primarily a portfolio-construction decision specific to that portfolio?

I suspect this may come up at next week’s Annual Conference. I’ll be at the Farm and look forward to the discussion, but I’d appreciate any clarification beforehand.

Porter & Co. Comment: In Saturday’s Complete Investor issue to paid-up subscribers, we will recommend how this outlook on P&C stocks plays out across the eight P&C stocks there.

Regarding PCPP, Porter wrote yesterday:

Note: This change applies to our own track record, not to every account built around this idea. The Porter & Company Porter Portfolio Index ETF (PCPP) that Tuttle Capital Management runs keeps its rules-based 25% allocation to each of its four sleeves. And your own allocation may not need to change either, depending on your tax situation, your time horizon, and how much of this risk you are already hedging elsewhere.


Porter & Co. Market Snapshot

Price Yesterday’s Return Year-to-Date Return
S&P 500 Index $7,585.73 -0.45% 11.7%
Gold per ounce $4,332.80 -0.17% 0.5%
Bitcoin $75,612.51 -4.06% -13.4%
Oil (West Texas Intermediate) per barrel $105.83 3.74% 80.4%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) $773,825.01 0.27% 2.5%
Porter’s Permanent Portfolio – 0.55% 3.8%
The Better Than Berkshire Index – 0.36% 7.0%
Total Return Annual Return
Porter & Co’s Top Ranked* 35.0% 15.9%
Yield Yesterday’s Change Change
Year-to-Date
U.S Treasury 30-Year Yield 5.36% 2 bps 52 bps
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 15, 2026 | bps = basis points (or 0.01%)
*A Complete Investor risk rating of 1 is defined as a “low risk, high allocation” security, while positions rated closer to a 5 are higher risk. Porter & Co.’s top-ranked positions include those rated either 1 or 2 in Complete Investor portfolio.


Porter & Co. Top Positions

Publication Ticker Description Total Return
Biotechnology QURE uniQure 237%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 194%
Complete Investor BTC/USD Bitcoin 180%
Biotechnology ROIV Roivant Sciences 174%
Complete Investor BWXT BWX Technologies 159%
Biotechnology TGTX TG Therapeutics 150%
Complete Investor PM Philip Morris 141%
Complete Investor SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance 134%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 130%
Biotechnology NUVB Nuvation Bio 128%
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 15, 2026

Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current recommendations page of the relevant service, here| New Window. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.

The post The Three Secret Dividends appeared first on Porter & Co..

  • ✇Porter & Co
  • Important Allocation Update Porter &#38 · Co.
    Issue#159, Volume#3Why We’re Changing Our Allocation In A “Permanent” Portfolio Inside Today’s Issue Essay: Why We’re Changing Our Allocation In A “Permanent” Portfolio Oil Tankers: $1 Million Per Day The Oil Crisis Has Arrived Bond Yields Go Global Chart Of The Day… APA Reader Poll… Interest Rates Today’s Mailbag Today’s Journal is extremely serious, but let me begin with a joke. Normally, bond salesmen never get into heaven. If you’ve never read the classic Liar’s Poker, then you may not
     

Important Allocation Update

15 September 2026 at 13:00

Issue#159, Volume#3

Why We’re Changing Our Allocation In A “Permanent” Portfolio


Today’s Journal is extremely serious, but let me begin with a joke.

Normally, bond salesmen never get into heaven. If you’ve never read the classic Liar’s Poker, then you may not understand why. Bond prices are opaque. That means bond salesmen can frequently get away with “murder” – taking a huge spread out of the trades they do for customers. There are a lot of bond traders without scruples who take advantage of “muppets” and sell them bonds with spreads wide enough to drive a new Ferrari through.

And so bond salesmen generally don’t get into heaven. But when 9/11 happened, God made some exceptions. An entire bond trading firm (Cantor Fitzgerald) got wiped out when the planes hit the towers. So God brought them all in. And he explained:

Look, you guys really don’t deserve to be here, okay. But I feel terrible about what’s happened to you. You’ve lost your lives, your families… your Ferraris. Everything. So, I’m willing to make an exception – this time. But I need something in return…

Well, as you can imagine, the bond traders were shocked and confused at first. But then they realized that God needed something from them. And unless they could give it to him, they were going to hell – for eternity!

The emerging-markets managing director came to his senses first. (He was the one most used to everything going to hell.) He stood up and faced God.

God, you’ve saved us. Thank you. We are all in your debt. And looking back, I understand why you don’t normally allow bond traders in here. We are all grateful and want to do whatever we can to help. What can we do for you, God?

God walked over to him. He put his arm around him and said, “Walk with me a minute.”

As they walked out of earshot of the other traders, God asked…

What do you think interest rates are going to do next year…?

We’re making a substantial change to our recommended allocation in Porter’s Permanent Portfolio. We recognize that there are lots of good reasons not to follow our advice about this change.

In the first place, no one can predict interest rates, not even God. And, secondly, the entire idea of a Permanent Portfolio is that you do not have to do any trading or hedging, as the portfolio is already hedged. It holds 25% in cash and 25% in gold and Bitcoin, which is a hedge against monetary volatility. Assuming you rebalance each year, this kind of portfolio will survive a crisis and continue to prosper – just as it did in 2008/2009 and just as it did during the COVID market panic.

But even though there are real risks to making this change, we think it’s the best course – for conservative investors who are retired.

Here’s why.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 5% on Monday, September 14, driven by soaring energy prices, the widening war with Iran, and a bond market losing patience with Washington’s deficits.

Interest rates on the benchmark U.S. bond have only touched that level once since before the Global Financial Crisis, in October 2023. But by that point, the Fed had raised its benchmark rate 11 times (!) since starting the cycle in March 2022, taking the federal funds target range up to 5.25-5.50%.

In other words, back in October 2023, the Fed was already well into a tightening cycle. Commodity prices were already coming down, and measures of inflation were moderating. And the Fed Funds rate was at par with two-year Treasury notes.

Today, commodity prices are soaring. And the Fed hasn’t begun a determined hiking cycle – putting itself way behind the curve. The Fed Funds target range is currently 3.50%-3.75%, while the two-year Treasury yield is 4.67%. That means the Fed is about 100 basis points behind the market’s rate of interest.

What does all this mean? We’re on the cusp of a rate-hiking cycle.

And there are real risks to this cycle because of the size of the national debt. We are entering uncharted waters with the massive size of the coming refundings. Total marketable U.S. Treasury debt outstanding is $31.8 trillion, carrying a weighted-average interest rate of about 3.48%. About 33% of that debt, roughly $10.5 trillion, matures within 12 months. Call it $15 trillion over the next 18 months. So roughly half of the national debt will reprice in the next 18 months.

If rates average 5% (which, again, is behind the curve currently), that will add $220 billion in annual interest expense. That would be a 21% increase to current interest expense ($1 trillion currently). It would also add 12% to the annual deficit.

While important, the bigger issue is how this big increase in interest expense will be paid for. There’s zero chance the government reforms entitlements or cuts military spending. Which means these bigger interest payments will surely be paid for by yet more inflationary government deficit spending. And the deficit is already running at 6% of GDP (gross domestic product).

That will push us into a very dangerous situation. The Fed may not be able to raise rates high enough to stop the inflation this time because our debt stock is now so large relative to GDP that a Paul Volcker-style interest rate-hiking cycle isn’t fiscally survivable like it was in 1980.

These risks are not priced into the market yet and, in fairness, these risks may not materialize for a few more years. However, I do note that Bank of America (BAC) is down 10% in the last month. It’s my best canary in the coal mine stock to gauge interest rate risks, because of its enormous, low-yielding bond portfolio. (Bank of America bought $700 billion in 2% bonds in July of 2020.) As rates go higher, the risks grow that Bank of America will fail because of the losses on these bonds.

My main concern is that this inflationary cycle may be much harder to control, because it’s being driven by factors (entitlement spending, global geopolitics) that aren’t easily constrained. And as I told you yesterday, that kind of macro outlook reminds me very much of the 1973-1974 inflationary period, which didn’t resolve for a decade.

That means our property-and-casualty (P&C) insurance stocks face a very tough outlook.

P&C insurers write the policies that cover your car, your home, and your business against loss. They invest the premiums they collect, called float because it sits in their account between the day you pay and the day a claim gets paid. And insurance companies invest mostly in bonds.

That business model works well when rates and inflation are calm. It comes apart when they spike, for three reasons that hit at once.

  1. Claims get more expensive. It costs more to rebuild a fire-damaged house, replace a wrecked car, or settle a lawsuit when the general price level is rising. State regulators approve premium rate increases with a lag, sometimes a year or more, so claims costs can outrun the premium dollars collected to pay for them. Insurers call this loss-cost inflation. On liability lines, where lawyers and juries set the price, it’s called social inflation: litigation costs and jury awards climbing even faster than the government’s own inflation figures.
  2. The bonds insurers already own lose value. A bond paying 4% is worth less the moment the market can buy a new one paying 6%. That loss shows up immediately on the balance sheet, in book value: the net worth per share that investors use to price insurance stocks in the first place.
  3. The whole stock market’s multiple, the price investors will pay for each dollar of a company’s earnings or net worth, shrinks. When a 10-year Treasury pays 5% with no credit risk, investors demand more from every other asset, including P&C stocks that already trade close to book value. Book value shrinks from the bond losses, and the multiple applied to what’s left shrinks too, so both hits land in the same quarter.

There is one important offset to these risks. As insurance companies’ old, low-coupon bonds mature, insurers reinvest the cash into new bonds paying the higher rate. Thus, investment income rises over the following one to two years, and the stocks’ dividends rise with it, usually with a lag of a year or two behind the rate move itself. But that rebuilding takes years to show up in earnings, while the bond losses and the multiple compression show up the day rates move. The stock falls first, and recovers. If it recovers, it does so on a much longer clock than the dividend does.

I wanted to know how this unfolded during the 1973-1974 inflation. So I went back to the last time inflation and rates did this to P&C insurers, and I studied their share prices between January 1973 to January 1975, the two years bracketing the oil embargo, the wage-price spiral, and the 1973-74 bear market.

I used a primary source: the Associated Press‘ own NYSE and over-the-counter stock tables, printed daily in newspapers and digitized by the University of North Texas’s Portal to Texas History. We pulled the closing quotes nearest January 1973 and January 1975 for every major P&C insurer that was trading at the time, while we carefully excluded life insurers. Then we cross-checked the prices against Yahoo! Finance.

Here is what a pure-play P&C portfolio did over those two years.

The average decline across those nine names was 42%. The median was 43.5%. The S&P 500 itself fell 41% – from 119.10 to 70.23 – over the same stretch.

P&C insurance, the industry investors buy for safety, fell in line with the broader market, and in several cases fell harder.

We left several well-known names out of that table on purpose. Aetna Life & Casualty, Travelers, CNA Financial, Old Republic International, General Reinsurance, and Kemper all traded through the same period, and all fell too, in some cases much further. CNA Financial dropped 85%, but CNA was carrying a large life and health insurance book and came within a step of insolvency in 1974, when Loews bought 83% of its stock in a rescue. Aetna and Travelers ran life insurance and group health divisions as large as their P&C operations. General Reinsurance wrote reinsurance, not primary policies.

For a conservative investor, our recommendation is simple: stand aside from the P&C insurance industry until interest rates find a ceiling.

For our own track record, we are selling our 25% P&C allocation (“Insurance”) inside Porter’s Permanent Portfolio, in full. The proceeds move into our cash holdings, whose target allocation rises from 25% to 50% of the portfolio. The Lindy stocks (“Equities”) and the gold-and-Bitcoin allocation remain at 25% each.

We acknowledge that this kind of tactical move is risky. Selling triggers taxes and opens us to another risk: selling too soon. I recognize the 10-year U.S. benchmark yield touched 5% in 2007 and again in 2023, and both times it reversed. If that happens a third time, we will look foolish holding half the portfolio in cash while stocks and bonds recover without us.

As always, I simply give you the information I would want if our roles were reversed. In my personal portfolio, I have established a $10 million short position in long-duration bonds. I’m using that to hedge my exposure to the stock market. I’m not suggesting that’s right for you. I’m only explaining that I have a substantial amount of capital at risk based on the very analysis that I’m giving you.

I see a slew of risks that our country hasn’t faced in 50 years: massive and growing deficits, an energy shock now running through the global bond market, and the automatic cost-of-living increases built into Social Security and other entitlement programs. Together they point toward double-digit inflation and a 10-year Treasury yield above 8%, not a retreat below 5%.

Note: This change applies to our own track record, not to every account built around this idea. The Porter & Company Porter Portfolio Index ETF (PCPP) that Tuttle Capital Management runs keeps its rules-based 25% allocation to each of its four sleeves. And your own allocation may not need to change either, depending on your tax situation, your time horizon, and how much of this risk you are already hedging elsewhere.

Our new target allocation, until rates stabilize, is 25% Lindy stocks (high-quality businesses with the pricing power to raise prices as fast as their costs rise), plus 25% gold and Bitcoin. The rest, 50% cash, sits ready so we can redeploy into high-quality stocks and bonds once it looks like the inflation tide is going to recede.

A 10-year Treasury yield at 5% and moving higher doesn’t break a good insurer’s underwriting. But it does change the price investors will pay for it.

Tell me what you think of today’s Journal: porterstansberrydirect@gmail.com

Good investing,

F. Porter Stansberry
Stevenson, Maryland

Presented By: Banyan Hill Publishing

Hall Of Fame Trader Jon Najarian’s Top 5 Trades This Week

For the first time ever, he went live to show folks how it’s possible, but by no means probable, to make more in a single week than most people make in a year.

Starting this week!

He even detailed his FIVE new trade alerts… and gave away the name and ticker of his #1 play during the event.

Click here to watch now and see everything.

Editor’s Note: Keep in mind, we only accept advertising from publishers we know to offer well-researched ideas vetted by a legal team, excellent customer service, and reasonable refund policies. Banyan Hill is one such partner. We do not, however, under any circumstances make any representations about their investment ideas or strategies, nor will we warrant them as equal to our own. We do recognize that the markets are tempestuous and, at times, ideas that we may not endorse prove valuable.


3 Things To Know Before We Go…

1. Oil tankers now cost more than $1 million a day to hire. The Baltic Exchange, the London body that publishes shipping’s benchmark prices, assessed a supertanker carrying crude oil from the Persian Gulf to China at $1.035 million a day on Monday, the first seven-figure reading in the index’s history. The same route set a record of about $424,000 a day when the Iran war began in late February, and before the war, shipbroker Clarksons expected these ships to average just $75,000 a day. Few owners will currently send a vessel through the Strait of Hormuz. Crude is instead ferried out to the Gulf of Oman and transferred ship-to-ship, and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are forcing some tankers onto a detour around Africa that adds roughly 30 days to transit. Every extra day at sea removes a ship from the market.

2. Energy executives warn: “Crisis is here.” A growing chorus of energy veterans is sounding the alarm that the energy-supply crisis has officially arrived. This includes Chevron (CVX) CEO Mike Wirth, who noted at an energy conference on Friday that the short-term efforts to mitigate the supply crisis “have largely now played out.” This includes the depletion of strategic stockpiles around the world, which can no longer provide a buffer to offset a record supply deficit. The market is sending the same message, with oil prices now firmly above $100 per barrel and refined products like diesel trading above $200 per barrel.

3. Bond yields break out across the globe. The U.S. 10-year bond yield hit 5.04% overnight, reaching the highest level since 2007. Across the pond, the 10-year bond yields in the UK, France, and Germany have all hit their highest levels since 2009. And in Japan, the 10-year bond yield is now at 3% – the highest level since 1996. With government debts ballooning and a building energy crisis feeding into higher inflation, this will likely keep the upward pressure on borrowing costs globally.


Chart Of The Day… APA (APA)

Shares of oil-exploration firm APA (APA) have soared 105% over the last year and 161% since we recommended them in Porter & Co’s Asymmetry, an advisory offered exclusively to Partner Pass members.


Today’s Poll

Tomorrow, the Federal Open Market Committee (“FOMC”), led by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, will vote on future interest rate policies. Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike because of a higher-than-expected August consumer price index (“CPI”) report and oil trading above $100 per barrel.
Loading
Please enable JavaScript in your browser to complete this form.

Mailbag

In yesterday’s Journal, Porter wrote that the rise of yields on 10-year Treasuries to 5% will cause inflation to break out – as a result, the Fed will face a choice past Fed Chair Paul Volcker never faced: it will have to choose between fighting inflation and keeping the Treasury solvent.

“The Seventies”

Jim H. writes:

I appreciate the ’70s history, as I lived through it, and the technical explanation that I can understand. Thanks.


“It’s Very Scary”

William S. writes:

Thank you for the advice. It’s very scary. I’ve been investing in gold shares with Garrett Goggin at Golden Portfolio, 40%. I have some in gold coins, 15%, and the rest in cash.


“Thank You So Much”

Thomas V. writes:

I always feel like I’ve learned something whenever I read your commentary. Thank you so much. I’ve been following your work since around 2006 or so and I feel blessed to have found you.


Porter & Co. Market Snapshot

Price Yesterday’s Return Year-to-Date Return
S&P 500 Index $7,619.98 -0.48% 12.2%
Gold per ounce $4,299.64 -0.79% -1.0%
Bitcoin $79,085 2.28% -12.3%
Oil (West Texas Intermediate) per barrel $101.39 -0.84% 78.4%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) $771,770.02 0.75% 2.2%
Porter’s Permanent Portfolio – 0.54% 3.8%
The Better Than Berkshire Index – 0.36% 7.0%
Total Return Annual Return
Porter & Co’s Top Ranked* 35.0% 15.9%
Yield Yesterday’s Change Change
Year-to-Date
U.S Treasury 30-Year Yield 5.34% -1 bps 50 bps
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 14, 2026 | bps = basis points (or 0.01%)
*A Complete Investor risk rating of 1 is defined as a “low risk, high allocation” security, while positions rated closer to a 5 are higher risk. Porter & Co.’s top-ranked positions include those rated either 1 or 2 in Complete Investor portfolio.



Porter & Co. Top Positions

Publication Ticker Description Total Return
Biotechnology QURE uniQure 237%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 202%
Complete Investor BTC/USD Bitcoin 189%
Biotechnology ROIV Roivant Sciences 181%
Complete Investor BWXT BWX Technologies 162%
Biotechnology TGTX TG Therapeutics 152%
Complete Investor PM Philip Morris 141%
Complete Investor SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance 137%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 135%
Biotechnology NUVB Nuvation Bio 134%
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 14, 2026


Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current recommendations page of the relevant service, here| New Window. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.

The post Important Allocation Update appeared first on Porter & Co..

  • ✇Porter & Co
  • Ten-Year Rates Move Over 5%: The First Step Toward A Monetary Reset Porter &#38 · Co.
    Issue#158, Volume#3Why Now Is The Most Dangerous Time For Your Savings In 50 Years Inside Today’s Issue Essay: The First Step Toward A Monetary Reset Inflation Expectations Rise AI Leaders Call For A Pause Trump Gives Support For Crypto Bill Chart Of The Day… 10-Year Treasury Yield Today’s Mailbag Edit Delete Editor’s note: Join Porter for his new Ignition Point broadcast this Wednesday and discover how several separate technological forces are fusing to create what Porter calls “
     

Ten-Year Rates Move Over 5%: The First Step Toward A Monetary Reset

14 September 2026 at 13:00

Issue#158, Volume#3

Why Now Is The Most Dangerous Time For Your Savings In 50 Years


⚙ Edit 🗑 Delete

Editor’s note: Join Porter for his new Ignition Point broadcast this Wednesday and discover how several separate technological forces are fusing to create what Porter calls “the next Mag7.” Secure your seat here.


As I’ve been warning could happen since March, yields on the 10-year Treasury bond are now trading above 5%.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield jumped to 5.005% in the minutes after the August inflation report hit the wire last Friday – the 10-year traded above the 5% level again this morning. Both times, as soon as the yield broke above 5%, there was a massive intervention in the market forcing yields lower. I suspect the Fed is actively suppressing rates. Or it could be the Treasury issuing more short-term bills and buying longer term bonds.

My new book 2029 The End Of America: Why The Age Of Paper Money Is Ending And How To Survive The Coming Global Monetary Reset explains exactly why this is a very dangerous situation, not just for investors, but for our entire country. I write on page 29:

When Powell raised the federal funds rate from zero to 5%, he did not just cool the economy — he tripled the United States government’s annual interest expense. Net interest on the national debt went from $345 billion in October 2020 to $981 billion in October 2025. That is more than the entire defense budget of the United States of America… The next time inflation breaks out — and it will break out, because the structural forces driving it have not been addressed and the monetary expansion of 2020–2022 has not been meaningfully reversed — the Fed will face a choice Paul Volcker never faced: it will have to choose between fighting inflation and keeping the Treasury solvent. It cannot do both. And because no democracy in the history of the human race has ever chosen Treasury-solvency-and-austerity over inflation when the choice was forced upon it in a moment of crisis, the Fed will choose inflation.

What’s happening today — in the markets, with the Iran War, and in our politics — is almost exactly what happened the last time there was a huge, global monetary reset, which was in the early 1970s when the U.S. defaulted on its promise to redeem dollars for gold.

That decision unleashed a new, global fiat monetary regime that’s seen asset prices soar while wages stagnated, destroying the middle class in America. It led to a decade of much higher inflation rates and much higher interest rates from 1971-1981. By the time the 1970s monetary reset was over, long-term rates were 15% annually, high-quality stocks were trading at six times earnings, and the dollar’s purchasing power had fallen by more than 50%.

Could that really happen again? Absolutely.

Last year, the federal government ran a deficit of almost $2 trillion, spending 34% more than it collected. The government, already supporting unprecedented debts, is running a deficit that is 6% of GDP — during peacetime and with full employment!

This hasn’t happened since the 1970s.

And look at our politics. Who reminds you of President Richard Nixon more than President Donald Trump? Trump issued roughly 225 executive orders in the first year of his second term, and, like President Barack Obama (!), is using law enforcement to settle political scores. He’s the most “imperial” president we’ve had since Nixon. (Obama! was the most insufferable.)

The difference between 1971 and today is that the federal government is vastly larger and the spending is even more out of control. Today, all state and local governments combined spend around $3.7 trillion annually. That’s only half of federal outlays: the federal government spends more than the other 50 states, combined.

And then there’s the war.

In October 1973, Egypt and Syria attacked Israel on Yom Kippur. The Arab oil producers answered with an embargo, and oil ran from $3 a barrel to nearly $12 in a matter of weeks. America’s involvement in this war was never about Israel. It was always a war over the dollar. The Saudis had threatened to stop pricing oil in dollars after Nixon broke the gold promise in 1971. The war, and the secret petrodollar arrangement that ended it, kept oil priced in dollars for 50 years and allowed America to run endless trade deficits financed purely with paper money. That deal ended in 2024. And look whose oil industry is being destroyed in this war: Saudi Arabia’s. That’s not a coincidence.

There’s one other major similarity between today and the early 1970s that no one is talking about yet: the urgent need for entitlement reform.

In the 1972 election year, Congress and Nixon gave Social Security recipients a 20% across-the-board benefit increase.

Trump is promising something even bigger in this election: a $5,000 “dividend” for voters if the Republicans win both the Senate and the House.

But it’s the 1972 law that’s the real risk. The Social Security Amendments of 1972 did something no government had done to itself before: it wired future benefits directly to inflation. Starting in 1975, guided by the consumer price index (“CPI”), checks would rise automatically every year. No vote required, ever again.

When inflation ran higher in the late 1970s, one of the main reasons it was so hard to control was because federal spending was mandated to increase alongside inflation. The first automatic cost of living adjustment (“COLA”), in 1975, was 8%. By 1980, it was 14.3%. The government had built a machine that took the very inflation it was causing and fed it straight back into its own largest expense, automatically.

So… what caused the inflationary spiral of the 1970s? A deranged, imperial president who refused to cut spending even when it was obviously out of control, a war in the Middle East that disrupted oil supplies for a decade, and an entitlement system that vastly increased spending, automatically because it was indexed to inflation.

And what do we see today?

The federal government is $40.1 trillion in debt, running close to $2 trillion in annual deficits, and the two fastest-growing line items (Social Security and interest expenses) are linked to inflation. Printing money won’t cure these obligations – it will make them grow faster.

The Strait of Hormuz has effectively been shut for over 100 days, and Houthi attacks on tankers in the Red Sea have added a second front. There’s already been substantial damage to major energy infrastructure, and there’s no end in sight to this conflict. Oil is above $100 a barrel.

The CPI rose 3.4% in August and has been above the 2% rate for 66 consecutive months – more than five years. That’s driving massive increases to Social Security payments, with 2027’s COLA expected to be 3.7%. The program, which has been operating in the red since 2010, currently pays out about $138.4 billion a month, or roughly $1.66 trillion a year, to 71.3 million beneficiaries. A 3.7% COLA adds about $5.1 billion a month to that, or $62 billion more a year. And that’s before counting the roughly 1.5 million new beneficiaries who join the rolls annually.

America’s federal government is a leviathan spiraling toward insolvency with a printing press. You know what it’s going to do. It is going to defraud its creditors.

How? In all kinds of ways. By defaulting on Social Security (yes, that will absolutely, 100% happen). And by resetting the value of our currency much lower, thus making it easier to repay its debts. That’s exactly why long-duration interest rates are going much higher.

That will not be good for equity valuations. It will also not be good for our country. The 1970s were a period of tremendous political violence. And this time will be worse.

If you haven’t yet, now is a very good time to read my book.

It’s available at Amazon.com, both as a paperback and on Kindle. You can also listen to it as an audiobook. It’s only $9.99 (via Kindle). Please read it. And give a copy to someone you love. It’s a thorough guide to protecting your wealth from the coming monetary reset.

P.S. Attentive readers will recall that earlier this year (in March) I suggested that retired investors, or investors who didn’t want to face a lot of volatility this year, should sell the property-and-casualty (P&C) insurance allocation in Porter’s Permanent Portfolio and move those assets to short-term Treasury bills (SHY). Doing so would create a Permanent Portfolio asset allocation that’s ready for higher inflation and higher interest rates: 25% stocks, 25% gold and Bitcoin, and 50% cash. I explained that when the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%, I would move our official allocations to match this conservative allocation. I haven’t done that yet, because, so far, the 5% level hasn’t held. When I change our official allocations, I’ll let Complete Investor subscribers know.

Tell me what you think of today’s Daily Journal: porterstansberrydirect@gmail.com

Good investing,

F. Porter Stansberry
Stevenson, Maryland

Presented By: Paradigm Press

Oil Prices Could Send These Three Stocks Soaring

If the turmoil in the Middle East has you rushing to buy oil stocks right now – STOP and read this.

The biggest gains from the last oil crisis didn’t come from oil companies.

The top-performing energy stocks were tiny. Practically unknown. And every major oil company in America was completely dependent on them.

Today, it’s the exact scenario— except the scale is roughly 13,000 times larger.

That’s why I just vetted three of these companies in this exact same position.

But this time it’s not just oil that’s driving them higher…

Trump’s latest initiative could lead this sector to a major surge.

Editor’s Note: Keep in mind, we only accept advertising from publishers we know to offer well-researched ideas vetted by a legal team, excellent customer service, and reasonable refund policies. Paradigm Press is one such partner. We do not, however, under any circumstances make any representations about their investment ideas or strategies, nor will we warrant them as equal to our own. We do recognize that the markets are tempestuous and, at times, ideas that we may not endorse prove valuable.


3 Things To Know Before We Go…

1. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%… The University of Michigan September survey index is up from 4.0% in August. Roughly 37% of consumers spontaneously named tariffs as a concern, the most since April, while about 30% named prices at the pump. Those are two separate supply shocks landing on the same household budget, and neither is the kind of inflation a central bank can wait out. Markets are pricing in an 81% chance of a rate hike for Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

2. AI leaders push for a pause. Last week, a former researcher for leading AI platform Anthropic made headlines after publicly resigning and warning that the leading frontier labs are racing recklessly toward dangerous “superintelligence.” Over the weekend, AI leaders including OpenAI head Sam Altman, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, and X owner Elon Musk called for slowing the pace of AI development. Critics argued that regulations on AI would favor these incumbents at the expense of lower-cost, open-source alternatives that have begun taking market share from OpenAI and Anthropic. The prospect of a slower pace of AI development sparked a sell-off across the data-center supply-chain complex, including the semiconductor sector, which fell by 4% on the news.

3. Trump concedes on crypto ethics, clearing the path for the Clarity Act. Late Sunday, Senate Republicans released what they called the final text of the bill, which would create the first comprehensive federal rulebook for crypto. President Trump reportedly agreed to roughly 80% of a bipartisan ethics proposal from Senators Thom Tillis (R., NC) and Ruben Gallego (D., AZ) that Senate Democrats had demanded for approval. Tomorrow at 2:15 p.m. ET, the Senate votes on cloture, the step that ends debate and lets the bill advance. That takes 60 votes. With at least two of 53 Republicans expected to vote no, about nine Democrats must cross over to support it. Prediction market Kalshi now puts the odds of ultimate passage at close to 50%, up from just 18% before the text came out.


Chart Of The Day… 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Note briefly touched 5.011% this morning, its highest level since July 2007.


Mailbag

On Friday, Porter wrote in the Daily Journal that AI and tech are essential tools for the success of any business – so much so that in a decade we will no longer think of something being a tech stock since any successful company will have tech to thank for their staying power.

“Everyone Should Read This”

Stephen B. writes:

Every student, every job seeker, every investor, and even philosophers should be exposed to this analysis.

This is an excellent example of inductive reasoning about a process that excels at deductive conclusions. I hope it will be discussed in our educational institutions as guidance about how and where AI can assist humanity. AI is not a competitor for “intelligence” – it does not originate inductive discoveries. It reports deductive conclusions based on existing data bases.


Luke S. writes:

Good, solid article!


Porter & Co. Market Snapshot

Price Friday’s Return Year-to-Date Return
S&P 500 Index $7,656.98 0.86% 12.8%
Gold per ounce $4,349.08 0.72% -0.8%
Bitcoin $77,318 0.21% -11.3%
Oil (West Texas Intermediate) per barrel $100.05 -4.09% 80.3%
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) $766,000.00 0.62% 1.5%
Porter’s Permanent Portfolio – 0.25% 3.2%
The Better Than Berkshire Index – 0.39% 6.7%
Total Return Annual Return
Porter & Co’s Top Ranked* 35.4% 15.6%
Yield Friday’s Change Change
Year-to-Date
U.S Treasury 30-Year Yield 5.35% -1 bps 35 bps
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 11, 2026 | bps = basis points (or 0.01%)
*A Complete Investor risk rating of 1 is defined as a “low risk, high allocation” security, while positions rated closer to a 5 are higher risk. Porter & Co.’s top-ranked positions include those rated either 1 or 2 in Complete Investor portfolio.



Porter & Co. Top Positions

Publication Ticker Description Total Return
Biotechnology QURE uniQure 237%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 202%
Complete Investor BTC/USD Bitcoin 184%
Biotechnology ROIV Roivant Sciences 180%
Complete Investor BWXT BWX Technologies 165%
Biotechnology TGTX TG Therapeutics 152%
Biotechnology NUVB Nuvation Bio 139%
Complete Investor PM Philip Morris 137%
Biotechnology SGMT Sagimet Biosciences 135%
Biotechnology QURE uniQure 131%
Prices as of 4:00 pm ET September 11, 2026


Please note: The investments in our “Porter & Co. Top Positions” should not be considered current recommendations. These positions are the best performers across our publications – and the securities listed may (or may not) be above the current buy-up-to price. To learn more, visit the current recommendations page of the relevant service, here| New Window. To gain access or to learn more about our current recommendations, call our Customer Care team at 888-610-8895 or internationally at +1 443-815-4447.

The post Ten-Year Rates Move Over 5%: The First Step Toward A Monetary Reset appeared first on Porter & Co..

❌