Today’s issue in preview:

• How to invest with Donald Trump massively on your side

• Visa and Mastercard just trampled the stock market bears. That’s important for your 401(k)

• Should you be selling stocks because of “weak breadth?” This chart has the answer

• Learn our Top Themes to buy now

Visa and Mastercard just trampled the stock market bears. That’s important for your 401(k)

Credit: VioletaStoimenova

This week, shares of credit card giants Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) reached new all-time highs.

We can take several insights away from their strength, but the most important one is this:

If two of America’s most important consumer spending companies are enjoying strong growth and soaring stock prices, then the economy isn’t struggling as many bearish investment professionals claim… it’s actually “humming along nicely.”

Visa and MasterCard are the world’s largest credit card companies. Their payment networks connect billions of consumers, merchants, and banks.

Rather than lending money, they earn fees by facilitating credit and debit card transactions. The two firms are effectively a duopoly in U.S. credit card payments. Together, they account for roughly 85% of U.S. general-purpose credit card purchase volume, with American Express and Discover accounting for most of the remainder.

Visa and Mastercard have leveraged their entrenched positions and massive networks to generate market-leading long-term growth and large profit margins. Business quality aficionados consider their financial metrics a thing of beauty.

Visa and Mastercard’s positions also make them good “real world” economic indicators.

Many investors fixate on government data such as unemployment figures, job hirings, and the Consumer Price Index. I like to know that data as everyone else does.

However, when I want a read on what’s really happening in the economy, I place far greater focus on what’s happening in the real world. I look at stock prices. In doing this, I listen to the judge, jury, and executioner of any thesis, any trend, and any claim: The market.

Visa and Mastercard are sensitive to the health of the American consumer. Last quarter, both firms reported double-digit revenue growth, healthy transaction volumes, and resilient consumer spending. That business strength – plus expectations of more in the future – has propelled both stocks to new all-time highs.

Does the U.S. economy have imbalances, distortions, and risks? Absolutely. It always does. But making money in stocks is never the result of a problem-free economic environment. It’s always about being in an environment where the big problems are overwhelmed by the even bigger positives.

Right now, the market is telling us that the positives are currently much stronger than the negatives. Manage your financial affairs accordingly!

How to invest with Donald Trump massively on your side

Credit: halbergman

Want to know if America’s manufacturing renaissance is real?

Don’t listen to the mainstream news or politicians.

Instead, listen to the market.

It’s far smarter and far more honest than the sources above. And it’s saying the “Made in America” megatrend is gathering steam.

As evidence, we cite the bull market in industrial supply distributors Fastenal (FAST), W.W. Grainger (GWW), and MSC Industrial Direct (MSM).

Fastenal, Grainger, and MSC Industrial Direct are three of America’s leading industrial supply distributors. They provide manufacturers, construction companies, and industrial facilities with essential products such as fasteners, cutting tools, safety equipment, replacement parts, and maintenance supplies.

Fastenal specializes in fasteners and on-site inventory management. Grainger offers a vast catalog of industrial and maintenance products. MSC focuses heavily on metalworking and manufacturing supplies. All three benefit from increased U.S. manufacturing activity and industrial investment.

This means their stock price trends tell us a lot about the Made in America megatrend.

Back in January, I made the case for going long the Made in America megatrend… for investing in companies that supply critical equipment and services for building and operating today’s high-tech factories.

The bull case here is simple…

President Donald Trump – along with many business and military leaders – believes that the U.S. has outsourced far too much of its industrial capacity to China over the past 25 years.

We outsourced significant portions of our semiconductor, appliance, medicine, weapons, and machinery production. We outsourced the capacity to produce and process critical resources, such as rare earth elements.

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that depending on other countries for critical economic inputs makes the U.S. economy less safe and secure. To put it bluntly, it is very stupid to not make products critical to national security like AI semiconductors within our own borders.

Trump has staked his legacy and reputation on expanding our industrial base… and he’s working with business leaders to invest trillions to pursue this goal. Apple (AAPL), for example, has committed to invest $600 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years. Nvidia (NVDA) says it will invest $500 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years.

Drug giant Eli Lilly (LLY) said it has committed more than $50 billion in domestic manufacturing commitments since 2020, including four additional U.S. plants announced in 2025. Lilly says it will be the largest domestic drug manufacturing investment in U.S. history.

In Money & Megatrends, we’ve capitalized on this “Made in America” megatrend with strong returns in robotics, factory automation, and machine component makers such as Cognex (CGNX), Ouster (OUST), and RBC Bearings (RBC).

The stock price trends of FAST, GWW, and MSM suggest the Made in America megatrend is gaining momentum. Over the past 12 months, their shares have surged 21.5%, 41.6%, and 54%, respectively. This week, MSM reached a new all-time high. All three companies are reporting year-over-year quarterly revenue growth exceeding 7.5%.

These impressive business results and stock market performances send a powerful message: American manufacturers and industrial companies are spending heavily on the equipment, supplies, and materials they need to expand and maintain their operations. We recommend staying long the Made in America megatrend.

Should you be selling stocks because of “weak breadth?” This chart has the answer

Credit: roman_slavik

No matter how strong corporate earnings are… or how strong broad market averages like the S&P 500 are, two or three “Big Worries” are always circulating around the investment community.

There are always potential risks and concerns held by investment professionals that keep them light on stocks or out of them completely.

This fall, one of the Big Worries is “weak market breadth.”

“Breadth” is Wall Street’s preferred term for how widely a stock market’s gains or losses are spread across individual stocks.

Rather than focusing solely on the movement of a major index like the S&P 500, breadth reveals how many stocks are participating in the trend. The general idea is that if you’re bullish, you want to see strong breadth, which shows many stocks are in uptrends.

Common breadth indicators include the percentage of stocks above their 50- or 200-day moving averages, the percentage of advancing versus declining stocks, and the percentage of new highs versus new lows.

Strong breadth suggests widespread participation, while weak breadth indicates that relatively few stocks are driving the market.

Over the past two months, stock market breadth has grown weak. Rising interest rates and several smaller market forces have hammered many key market sectors, including real estate, utilities, defense, financials, and consumer spending-related stocks.

Meanwhile, the strength in technology stocks we’ve been covering has supported the broad market averages. The S&P 500 is less than 2% off its all-time high.

Many investment professionals look at select weak breadth indicator readings and say it’s bearish. They say it means “time to sell.”

But before you do that, have a look at the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP).

The popular S&P 500 Index is a “market-cap weighted” index. This means the biggest companies, such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL), have a greater impact on the index’s value than smaller companies. A big rally in a $5 trillion giant like Apple can overwhelm losses in 30 smaller companies.

An “equal weight” index nullifies market-value-related impacts – assigning equal weight to each stock in the index regardless of company size. With an equal-weight index, a massive 100% annual gain in a giant like Nvidia cannot mask or overwhelm weakness in hundreds of smaller stocks.

An equal-weight index does a much better job of showing how the market is doing broadly than how the 10 largest companies are doing.

RSP is by far the largest ETF that tracks the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index. As you can see in the one-year chart below, this fund is comfortably within the confines of an uptrend. And while it isn’t trading near its all-time high, it’s not far from it (less than 5%).

RSP’s uptrend shows that all the hype and hoopla over “weak market breadth” and the supposed horrible market conditions it reflects is ignorant and misplaced. This is not a market with a small handful of leaders and a collapsing interior.

Having said this, keep an eye on RSP’s September low of $209 per share. If we hold above this line, I’m not worried at all about weak breadth. But a break below $209 is cause for concern. We will keep you updated on this Big Worry that is getting so much attention.

Market Notes

• Our recommendation to get long oil and gas stocks continues to pay off. Oil giants Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), EOG Resources (EOG), Suncor Energy (SU), and Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR) hit new one-year highs today.

• The Iran War and its constriction of oil and refined products continue to benefit U.S. refiners. Refining giants Valero Energy (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), HF Sinclair (DINO), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reached new one-year highs today.

• The Iran War and its constriction of oil and refined product supplies continue to work in favor of oil shipping firms. Industry leaders International Seaways (INSW) and Tsakos Navigation (TEN) reached new one-year highs this week.

• Leading financial technology company SoFi Technologies (SOFI) reached a new one-year low today.

• Space economy leader AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) reached a new one-year low today.

• Large homebuilders DR Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), PulteGroup (PHM), and Lennar (LEN) reached new one-year lows today.

• Leading air taxi firm Joby Aviation (JOBY) reached a new one-year low today.

Regards,

Brian Hunt
Editor, Money & Megatrends

An urgent message from our colleagues:

“Do NOT buy high flying tech stocks like Nvidia, SpaceX”

One of America’s leading AI pioneers is stepping forward today with this urgent warning… and to reveal exactly where to move your money for a chance at 1,000%+ returns before October 31st.

Get the full details here.

The post How to invest with Donald Trump massively on your side appeared first on MarketWise.

Today’s issue in preview:

• This Trump-backed stock trade could generate triple-digit returns

• An important new development in “the world’s most important trend”

• Learn our Top Themes to buy now

This Trump-backed stock trade could generate triple-digit returns

Credit: William_Potter

After decades of being indifferent or outright hostile towards mining, the U.S. government is now one of the industry’s best friends.

Over the past 18 months I’ve frequently cited how this unique situation is producing large financial opportunities. As evidence, we present the recent new highs reached by Sunrise Energy Metals (SREMF). The stock is up 150% since we first profiled it on March 20.

The megatrend thesis goes like this: President Donald Trump – along with many business and military leaders – believes that the U.S. has outsourced far too much of its industrial capacity to China over the past 25 years.

We outsourced significant portions of our semiconductor, appliance, medicine, weapons, and machinery production. We outsourced the capacity to produce and process critical resources, such as rare earth elements.

The COVID-19 pandemic showed that depending on other countries for critical economic inputs makes the U.S. economy less safe and secure. To put it bluntly, it is very stupid to not make products critical to national security like AI semiconductors within our own borders.

Trump has staked his legacy and reputation on expanding our industrial base… and he’s working with business leaders to invest trillions to pursue this goal.

Apple (AAPL), for example, has committed to invest $600 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years. Nvidia (NVDA) says it will invest $500 billion in U.S.-based manufacturing over the next four years. The government is investing heavily in high-tech weapon systems manufacturing as well.

However, any plan to increase domestic manufacturing capacity must overcome a big problem: We don’t have sufficient supplies of critical resources needed to build the required infrastructure.

We don’t have the copper, iron ore, rare earths, lithium, antimony, nickel, and other vital building blocks required to build all those data centers… all those factories… all those robots… all those electric grids… all those power plants… and so on.

To make matters worse, we also lack the refining, smelting, and processing facilities needed to turn the raw forms of those resources into ready-to-use end products. We rely on China for a lot of that.

It’s as if we very much want to build a big house… but we don’t have all the lumber, screws, or nails we need to get the job done.

Solving the big “critical resources problem” is possible… and it is an enormous financial opportunity.

To ensure we have the critical resources to build trillions of dollars in infrastructure, the U.S. government will change any law, kill any regulation, and write any check that will increase production and processing capacity.

This means that after more than 30 years of the U.S. government being hostile to domestic mines and mineral processing facilities and indifferent towards supporting production in friendly nations, it is now supportive of the industry. Trump can’t have his big manufacturing dream without them.

And no matter who is president, the U.S. economy needs a diversified critical resources mining and processing base to lessen its dependency on China. Having that would make the U.S. economy much safer and more robust.

With all this in mind, the U.S. government has struck many important deals to support domestic and friendly country critical resource production over the past 12 months. They include:

-A $450 million preferred-equity investment in The Elmet Group (ELMT) to expand domestic tungsten mining, refining and manufacturing.

-A $725 million conditional loan commitment to Energy Fuels (UUUU) to expand U.S. rare-earth processing capacity.

-A $36.5 million direct equity investment in copper mining firm Trilogy Metals (TMQ), which is developing resources in Alaska.

-A $400 million conditional loan made to Sunrise Energy Metals to develop its enormous Syerston scandium project in Australia.

The U.S. government’s support of Sunrise has made our March 20 recommendation of the stock a big winner. Back then, we noted how scandium is one of the most critical metals you never hear about.

Scandium is a lightweight, rare metal valued mainly for strengthening aluminum. Small amounts added to aluminum create alloys that are stronger, lighter, more corrosion-resistant, and easier to weld – useful in aerospace, defense, and high-performance vehicles.

This is why securing critical minerals like scandium has become a national security imperative. Without scandium, the U.S. doesn’t have the most advanced missiles and drones. As the U.S. rebuilds missile stockpiles depleted by the Iran War, scandium demand will rise.

Scandium also has an “AI demand kicker” that should act as a long-term tailwind. The massive fuel cell maker Bloom Energy (BE) uses a lot of scandium to produce its products, which are in high demand for AI data center power infrastructure.

Sunrise’s Syerston project is one of the largest scandium resources in the world. Its development is seen as a key part of the U.S.A.’s scandium supply chain. Sunrise has signed a five-year scandium option with Lockheed Martin (LMT), giving the defense giant the right to purchase up to 25% of Sunrise’s scandium. The company is backed by mining powerhouse Robert Friedland… and is now backed by the U.S. government.

The Sunrise story demonstrates how the enormous geopolitical and economic forces working to secure critical resources right now can end up producing very large capital gains for investors.

Companies that could benefit greatly from this trend include U.S. firms Idaho Strategic Resources (IDR), Perpetua Resources (PPTA), Energy Fuels (UUUU), and MP Materials (MP). ETFs worth investigating include the Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC) and the Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM).

Our stance on this situation now is the same as it was one year ago. We sum it up like this: Partnering with the U.S. government to increase domestic and friendly-country supplies of critical resources will prove to be one of the most lucrative financial activities of this decade.

An important new development in “the world’s most important trend”

Credit: Black_Kira

Chalk one up in favor of technology stocks this week.

On Thursday, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) reached a three-month high… and is just pennies from reaching a new all-time high.

MAGS is the largest ETF specifically designed to give investors exposure to the “Magnificent 7,” a group of dominant technology firms comprised of Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Meta (META).

Together, these firms are worth about $24 trillion and make up roughly 31% of the benchmark S&P 500. No group of companies in history has wielded this group’s awesome combination of power, technological expertise, and vast financial resources. This group includes nearly all of the “hyperscalers” leading the AI revolution.

And the ETF that tracks this group is within pennies of its all-time high.

This is an important development for “the world’s most important trend.”

Over the past month, we’ve published a special series of research notes analyzing the AI infrastructure megatrend.

The status of this critical trend has become one of the great sagas of the business and investment world… a source of intense disagreement among industry bulls and bears. It’s a trend whose outcome could have large effects on your portfolio.

Given AI’s enormous promise, the firms above have invested over $1 trillion in AI infrastructure. They are on pace to invest over $700 billion this year alone and more than $4 trillion after that.

Both the scale and the velocity of this investment boom are unprecedented. It is the largest collective investment effort in history.

Big Tech’s historic investment boom has made the entire “AI infrastructure” trend responsible for a large share of America’s GDP growth and stock market returns over the past two years. It has also drawn the skeptical scrutiny of many widely followed investment analysts who claim the trend is a bubble… one that will soon explode and cause tremendous damage to stock prices and the global economy.

If this hugely consequential trend isn’t the most important trend in the stock market, then it is certainly in the top three.

I believe the AI infrastructure trend has years to run. I believe the world’s smartest, most connected tech insiders who know the true state of bleeding-edge AI development and have real-time stats on AI investment ROI, such as Elon Musk, Jensen Huang (Nvidia), Satya Nadella (Microsoft) and Andy Jassy (Amazon) could possibly… perhaps maybe… just might… know far more about AI and their businesses than outsiders know about it.

As much press as AI gets, let’s remember that less than 1% of the global population pays for top-tier AI programs. And I estimate less than 10% of large companies believe AI has made a meaningful impact on their businesses.

This revolutionary technology hasn’t yet proliferated, achieved mass adoption, or had mass impact.

Regular readers know I care a lot more about what the market thinks of any stock, trend or theme than what any one person thinks of it, including me. You can be bullish or bearish on a trend all you like, but if that trend is moving strongly against you, then your idea isn’t worth much in my book.

Over the past few months, we have analyzed price action in critical areas of the AI infrastructure trade – including the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), computer memory giant Micron (MU), and optical networking stocks – to guide our trading.

Since the Mag 7 plays a central role in AI infrastructure, it plays a central role in our analysis of it. Several of these firms have been singled out by bears for issuing debt to invest in AI data center construction.

However, right now, the market is saying debt issuance and ROI on AI infrastructure spend aren’t much of a worry… and that things are going quite well for the Mag 7. As you can see in the two-year chart below, MAGS is in a clear uptrend and is close to reaching an all-time high. A break above it would be bullish for the AI infrastructure trade, bullish for the tech sector in general, and bullish for America.

Market Notes

• The Iran War and its constriction of critical resources continue to work in favor of U.S. refiners. Valero Energy (VLO) reached a new all-time high today.

• Food and beverage giant PepsiCo (PEP) reached a new one-year low today.

• Fast food giant McDonald’s (MCD) reached a new one-year low today.

• Home improvement giant Lowe’s (LOW) reached a new one-year low today.

• Casino giant Las Vegas Sands (LVS) reached a new one-year low today.

Regards,

Brian Hunt
Editor, Money & Megatrends

An urgent message from our colleagues:

Emmy-winning analyst releases his next big story

Whitney Tilson shocked the nation on 60 Minutes when he accused a major company of poisoning its customers. The investigation won an Emmy and the stock fell nearly 80%. (He also called the housing crisis and the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers). Now, he’s releasing his next big story. He says a dangerous pattern is forming, and most Americans have no idea how exposed they really are.

For the full presentation, go here.

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